AG's UFC 107 Quick Picks (12/12/09)

My apologies for the lack of 'analysis'. To follow are strictly picks with minimal commentary:

Preliminary Card

* Welterweight bout: Kevin Burns vs. TJ Grant
Grant - Submission - Rd 1

* Welterweight bout: DaMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia
Garcia grinds out a decision

* Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares
The jiu-jitsu skills of these two will cancel out here. The better striker wins. I don't think Palhares can hang IMO.
Linhares - KO - Rd 2

* Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch
Blink and you might miss out on this fight.
Hendricks - TKO - Rd 1

* Lightweight bout: Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson
Nelson - decision

* Catchweight bout (195 lbs): Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia
Belcher - KO - Rd 2

Main Card
* Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Fitch - Will show us that trademark snarl after his victory via GnP in Rd 2

* Heavyweight bout: Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve
Buentello's a tough opponent but Struve has freakish size and good jiu jitsu for a heavyweight.
Struve - Submission - Rd 1

* Lightweight bout: Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
Guida hads been training with Greg Jackson's camp and we'll see if this helps Guida evolve. Admittedly, Guida will keep a relentless pace which will be difficult for KenFlo to keep up with but Florian should adapt and turn this fight around in the end.
Florian - decision

* Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
A bigger, stronger Mir will donimate leaving no doubt that he should be considered as a title contender in the first part of 2010.
Mir - Submission - Rd 2

* Lightweight Championship bout: B.J. Penn (c) vs. Diego Sanchez
I'm a big Sanchez fan and love that he moved down to Lightweight. He'll give BJ fits early on but unless he can take 'The Prodigy' out early in the fight, 'Nightmare' will end up on the receiving end of a Penn beatdown.
BJ retains the belt with a TKO in Rd 4

TUF 10 Finale (12/5/09) - AG's Quick Picks

Preliminary Card
* Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Joe Brammer
He'll be a long way from Iowa, but the bright lights of Vegas won't affect Brammer in his UFC debut against Bocek.

* Welterweight bout: John Howard vs. Dennis Hallman
Would it be wrong of me to say who cares?? Howard, decision.

* Light Heavyweight bout: Brian Stann vs. Rodney Wallace
Stann better win because I REFUSE to accept that some unknown from SC (Rodney Wallace) is using 'Sho Nuff the Master' as his nickname!!!

* Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Justin Wren
I like Wren in this one

* Heavyweight bout: Darrill Schoonover vs. James McSweeney
McSweeney KO's "Titties"

Main Card
* Heavyweight bout: Marcus Jones vs. Matt Mitrione
I wanna see 'Big Baby'/'Darkness' beat the crap out of 'Meathead'. Should be a quick win once Jones gets to the ground. I see a Kimura in Meathead's future in the 1st.

* Lightweight bout: Frank Edgar vs. Matt Veach
I liked the match-up better when it was Pellegrino v Edgar. Frankie gets back on track with this one handing Veach his first professional loss (by decision).

* Catchweight (215 lb) bout: Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander
OOOOHHHHH Y'all know I wanna pick Kimbo! And y'all KNOW the only reason this bout is on the main card is BECAUSE everyone wants to see Kimbo (whether to KTFO Houston or to get KTFO by Houston). It'll be a slugfest that will do nothing more than fulfill the bloodlust of the fans watching the bout. Alexander gets the cleaner shot in and rocks Kimbo's world... but not until the latter part of the 2nd round.

* Light Heavyweight bout: Matt Hamill vs. Jon Jones
I like Matt... a lot... but Jones... *sigh*, tough to pick against. Jones takes this one in the 2nd (TKO)

* Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub
Nelson's experience proves to be the edge here. I like Schaub's chances to take this to a distance but will fall short.

UFC 106 Quick Picks

I'm not very excited about this particular UFC. I had it marked on my calendar when Carwin was challenging Lesnar and moving Tito and Forrest to main event status just didn't cut it for me. Nevertheless, here are my picks for a PPV that lost a lot of it's luster after losing a title bout, a great match-up between Jon Fitch and Ricardo Almeida (due to an injury to Almeida), and Karo Parisyan (which, in the long run, won't be such a big loss to the UFC since he was mainly gatekeeper as of late).

Preliminary Card (Non-televised)
* Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos vs. Jason Dent
GS should pull this one out. Last time I saw him was a few seasons ago on TUF and in that season's finale. He seemed to have a greater skill set but Dent has proven to be a tough nut to crack. May be FotN candidate were it not buried on the card.
-- Sotiropoulos by TKO, Rd 3

* Lightweight bout: Caol Uno vs. Fabricio Camoes
Is there any real doubt who wins this?
-- Uno by sub, Rd 2

* Welterweight bout: Brock Larson vs. Brian Foster
Seems more like filler and not a fight that will elevate either fighter unless htey win in SPECTACULAR fashion and get featured on the main card.
-- Larson by KO, Rd 1

Preliminary Card (Spike TV)
* Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt
'Da Spida' is back but having to face a tough, young opponent in Rosholt. This won't be a picnic for either man and I'm leaning towards Grove JUST on experience alone. Wouldn't be surprised to see Jake come out of this with the W, tho.
-- Grove by decision

* Welterweight bout: Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis
Saunders has gotten nastier EVERY TIME he steps in the Octagon but the Irish Hand Grenade is going to be his greatest test to date. I hate to see either of these guys lose but tonight may be a chance for Saunders to prove he needs to be in the discussion for future contenders to the Welterweight title. Should be a war.
-- Saunders by decision

Main Card
* Welterweight bout: Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni
If I were picking with my heart I'd pick Amir all day every day because I hate Baroni THAT MUCH. But he has one last UFC run in him (similar to Frank Trigg). It's hard to say what baggage he's bringing with him. He was 5-5 in the UFC by the time he left in 2005. Re-established himself in Pride with a decent run (4-2) in a year and a half. But he is 3-4 since leaving Pride and 0-3 in televised broadcasts in that run (with EliteXC and Strikeforce). It simply isn't enough to be brought back IMO.
Nevertheless, with that said, usign my head it's hard to actually pick Amir over the NY Bad Ass. Amir hasn't shown much since winning his season of TUF against CB Dolloway. Losing to Jonny Hendricks was a tough loss and one he needs to bounce back from. I'd love to see it happen but If Baroni can clip him early Amir's UFC dreams could be over almost as quickly as they begun.
-- Baroni by TKO, Rd 1

* Light Heavyweight bout: Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Luis Cane is a tough opponent to debut with but I expect Lil Nog to make a splash in his UFC debut! (If he can avoid some of Cane's big strikes early)
-- Lil Nog by sub, Rd 2

* Welterweight bout: Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann
Thsi fight was moved up from the undercard. Gotta admit I could do without this fight on the main card but who am I, right? Thiago is bouncing back from a tough decision loss to Fitch and is facing a debuting Volkmann (fighting out of Minnesota MMA). Octagon experience once again plays a role here as I expect Thiago to take this one. But it won't be easy.
-- Thiago by decision

* Welterweight bout: Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson
This one promises to be another nasty fight with two guys who know how to put on a show and can fight with more emotion than brains at times. Here's another fight where I'd hate to see either one of these guys lose but... I'm going with Koscheck on this one. Rumble's ground game leaves a lot to be desired and if this goes to the ground he'll suffer a little. I suspect Kos will stand and bang with his for at least one full round but will eventually take use his ground game to his advantage.
-- Koscheck by TKO, Rd 3

* Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
It's always hard to pick against a fan favorite like Forrest Griffin but stepping in on short notice to take on Tito may be a bit too much for me. Tito is coming back 100% healthy. No back problems. And he's hungry to re-establish himself in the MMA landscape and, more specifically, get himself in the title hunt once again. Perhaps a win here will set-up a #1 contender shot for the Huntington Beach Bad Boy? We'll see, but he's gotta put on a good show against Forrest. Granted Griffin won't lose as badly as he did to Anderson Silva, but I expect him to lose. (Kills me to say that).
-- Tito by TKO, Rd 2

Strikeforce: Fedor v Rogers (on CBS)

Welcome back fight fans,

This Saturday (November 7th) we have another stacked MMA card presented by CBS on primetime television for our viewing pleasure! This will be CBS' first foray into MMA since the collapse of EliteXC. With the new partnership forged with Strikeforce, the network hopes to continue providing MMA cards on network TV once a quarter. This seems more likely to continue long term since they are now dealing with an MMA promotion that has been around for years. Strikeforce provides CBS with more stability than any other MMA promotion not named 'UFC'.

Without further ado, here are my picks/predictions/rants on Saturday's big night:

Undercard
* Women's bout (145-lb): Marloes Coenen vs. Roxanne Modafferi
* Welterweight bout: Mark Miller vs. Deray Davis
* Middleweight bout: John Kolosci vs. Shamar Bailey
* Middleweight bout: Louis Taylor vs. Nate Moore
* Welterweight bout: Christian Uflacker vs. Jonatas Novaes
* Bantamweight bout: Jeff Curran vs. Dustin Neace
I'd like to see Jeff Curran bounce back after a pretty bad run at the end of this time in WEC. Neace came in overweight in this bout and I hope that doesn't translate to a distinct advantage in the cage b/c Curran is a class act and it would be a shame for him to lose to a "bigger" fighter who can't be professional enough to make weight. It's one of the biggest insults in the fight game to come in overweight IMO and giving Curran 20% of his purse isn't nearly enough compensation. Very frustrating!!

Pick: Curran by decision

Main card
* Heavyweight bout: Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva
It will be interesting to see how Silva bounces back after being suspended for steroids use last year after capturing the (now-defunct) EliteXC Heavyweight championship. Werdum is on the short list of challengers for the heavyweight title in Strikeforce so we could be looking at a future contender for the heavyweight strap with the winner of this fight (the winner of Fedor-Rogers gets the first shot at Overeem).

I think Silva is a pretty skilled fighter but still a little green. He also won't have the same reach advantage he's had in the past with his other opponents. Werdum should be able to impose his will against Silva who IMO seems to be mismatched in this bout.

Pick: Werdum by TKO, Round 2


* Light Heavyweight bout: Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Is it wrong of me to say I don't really care about this fight much? I don't really see Sokoudjou putting up much of a challenge and expect Mousasi to have a short night (just like his Strikeforce debut a few months ago).

Pick: Mousasi by any method he wants but I'll go with a KO, Round 1.


* Middleweight Championship bout: Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller
Lots of bad blood between these guys leading up to this fight. Shields has looked very unimpressive in his last few fights and 'Mayhem' has seemed to let his ego get the best of him when fighting causing him to underachieve in the ring/cage IMO.

Should be an entertaining bout though I give the slight edge to Shields since he's been on the big national stage before. Jason will need to come in with his head right to win this one.

Pick: Shields by unanimous decision

* Heavyweight bout: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers
I'd love to give this to the hungry underdog who is looking to prove himself. And I'd love to default to the old line about how every fighter has a puncher's chance (esp a guy like Rogers who has powerful hands). But I simply cannot pick against Fedor. I don't feel Rogers will have an opportunity to get a clean shot in to rock Fedor and even if he WERE to do that I suspect Fedor will be able to recover quickly enough to take advantage of a rushing Rogers and possibly KO him with a counterstrike. This being said, Rogers best chance of winning may be taking this to a decision. But again, I can't see Fedor allowing this fight to go the full 3 rounds. At some point he will take Rogers to the ground and take control eventually subbing him.

Rogers is a big, strong fighter and has a 35 pound weight advantage going into the fight. Either way, the "Last Emperor" should be able to take "The Grim" down at will. It's just a matter of whether he feels he should do it early or wait til Rogers gasses a little and then slowly dismantle the big man.

Pick: Fedor by Armbar, Round 3

Strikeforce: Fedor V Rogers

Strikeforce: Fedor V Rogers Analysis and Predictions

Strikeforce: Fedor V Rogers - Saturday November 07, 2009 - CBS 9pm EST.
What's up party people! This Saturday's MMA event will be broadcast on CBS at 9pm EST. Yes this is FREE TV! The event comes via the very distant 2nd. place alternative to the UFC. I can live without the flashy, spectacle-like atmosphere and the over dramatic rethoric from Mauro, but I'm all for watching a solid MMA event, specially with Fedor headlining it. For the boxing fanatics out there that are just getting into MMA, it's OK, we forgive you, and you'll see a format that is much more familiar than the UFC. Also, StrikeForce also showcases female talent... a plus in my opinion. The preliminary card is ok, but some of the matches appear to be mismatches, but overall its still very much worth the attention of the fans. The main card is solid and full of fights with the potential of fireworks. Sit back, get your chips and brew (A Riestling and Sushi for me!) and enjoy some good ole' ass whuppins!

Preliminary card

* Women (145 lbs.) Marloes Coenen (16-3) VS Roxanne Modafferi (13-4)
This match was originally slated as a rematch between Coenen and Erin Toughill, but Modaffi fills in for Toughill due to "medical reasons". Modafferi has also defeated Coenen via split decision and is enjoying a 6 fight winning streak, but has not fought for a year. Coenen is very good on the ground but will most likely be outmatched by a much more rounded fighter in Modafferi. Expect Madafferi to keep this standing and to lay-and-pray if taken to the ground. Modafferi eeks out a decision victory again.

* Bantamweight Jeff Curran (29-12-1) VS Dustin Neace (17-13-1)
Curran washed out of WEC and is currently on a 4 fight losing streak, while Neace has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. Neace is a competent grappler who is going against a better grappler... preety simple, Curran enjoys a 2nd Round Submission victory in his hometown. This will hopefully be a stepping stone to revitalize Curran's career.

* Welterweight Mark Miller (9-5) VS Deray Davis (5-1-1)
This shuold be a great way for MIller to showcase his grapplin accumen and get back into the swing of things. Davis is adquate on his feet but usually has issues on the ground. Miller will look for the take down and dominte the position and punish davis. After 14 months away from the cage, Miller should welcome his 1st. round submission win.

* Welterweight Christian Uflacker (1-0) VS Jonatas Novaes (4-2)
Jonatas Novae has not competed for over a year and Uflacker, although lacking in experience, more than makes up in talent. Both these guys are Brazilian Jiujitsu specialists and will no doubt provide a grappling clinic for the fans. I'm going with the newcomer; Uflacker 2nd. round submission.

* Middleweight John Kolosci (10-5) VS Shamar Bailey (9-1)
Shamar Bailey has been on a tear and is currently enjoying a 3 fight winning streak. Kolosci was one of the most liked participants of TUF and has the skills to make the fight interesting. Although I like Kolosci, I see Bailey pushing he pace and outworking Kolosci with strikes and finish with a 2nd round ground and pound victory.

* Middleweight Louis Taylor (4-0) VS Nate Moore (5-1)
Here we have two virtual unknowns. Taylor has a wrestling base and is at home in Chicago. Moore trains at AKA and also Wrestled in college. Both these guys are hungry so this may be the sleeper fight of the prelims. I expect Louis to use his physicality and wear down Moore and finaly get a TKO in the 3rd round.

Main card

* Heavyweight Fabricio Werdum (12-4-1) VS Antonio Silva (13-1)
Werdum finds himself in the unusual circumstance of being the smaller fighter. Silva is a Huge heavyweight from ATT with decent Brazilian JiuJitsu and overated stand-up. His only advantage is his size. Werdum's grappling is light-years ahead of Silva's and his Muay Thai has been improving steadily. Silva needs to utilize good takedown defense and his size to bully Werdum in the clinch. Ultmately, Werdum will find his rhythm and get the takedown. Silva will sucumb to ground and pound or to to submission in the 2nd round. Vai Cavalo may be on his way to a title shot!

* Light Heavyweight Gegard Mousasi (26-2-1) VS Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (7-4-0)
The "Dreamcatcher" Mousasi is the current Light Heavyweight champion after his demolition of Babalu; but this will not be a championship fight. He is an impressive specimen from the famed Red Devil Sports Club. Mousasi possesses brutal striking and can also handle himself on the ground. He is also enjoying a 13 fight winning streak, and before his loss to Gono, was enjoying an 8 fight winning streak. All benefits this Armenian's skill and training with the likes of Fedor. On the other hand we have one of my least liked fighters. Sokoudjou has a hell of a punch and nobody can deny his ferosity and power in his punching. However, his cardio has always been suspect and although he is a Judo black-belt, in my opinion his ground work is mediocre at best. Sokoudjou will come out swinging and find more than his match in Mousasi. Another 1st round victory for Mousasi via KO ot TKO.

* Middleweight Jake Shields (23-4-1) VS Jason Miller (22-6, 1NC)
"Mayham" is definitely one of the most exiting fighters out there, and no one can question his sills on the cage. Unfortunately Jake Shields is a beast on the ground with both wrestling and JiuJitsu skills. Although Miller always keeps a fast pace on his fights, Shields will outclass and outfight Miller and gain the upeer hand in the 3rd round via ground and pound.

* Heavyweight FEDOR EMELIANENKO (30-1, 1NC) VS BRETT ROGERS (10-0)
Finally we have "The Last Emperor", the most dominating heavyweight in the history of the sport. For those of you that are unfamiliar with this unasuming, seemingly out of shape Russian... first shame on you, and second, prepare to be awed. Fedor commands one of the most impressive tool kits in MMA: His striking is defined with relatively quick punching with KO power and the uncanny ability to maintan the impact of his strikes even when backing away, he can go with minimal loss to intensity for the entirety of a fight, but most importantly, his combat Sambo is second to none. He destroys people with his ground and pound and works armbars from the bottom with ease. Yeah.. the total package.
Brett Rogers is a heavy hitting monster that can put anybody to sleep if given the chance. He has been tearing through the heavyweights and dismantelled Andrei Arlovski- easily one of the best strikers in MMA - in the 1st. round of their fight. Both these guys will come out swinging so there will be sparks early on. I expect Fedor to slow the pace down and look for the mat. Fedor has flaws, he just never gives anybody the chance to exploit them. I think Rogers has a great chance to test Fedor's chin and put him away... provided he can get his paws on the Cyborg. Unfortunately for Rogers, Fedor can win this match any number of ways; Rogers only has a puncher's chance. Fedor continues his hegemony on the Heavyweigh division with a 2nd round ground and pound.

UFC 104 Quick Picks

Welcome back fight fans!!

The UFC will be bringing us one of the more stacked cards and more intriguing match-ups than we've seen in some time (rather than throwing big names at us in their main events). These may not be 'flashy' fights but the card has the potential to be one of the most exciting top to bottom.

Without further ado, here are my picks for UFC 104:

Undercard--
* Middleweight bout: Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
This fight should be on the PPV and/or the Spike portion of UFC 104 based on name recognition. However, these two are likely to produce the "Snoozer of the Night" so I don't blame Dana White and Joe Silva for putting this on the undercard. A lot rides on this fight for each of these fighters. Win or lose, the one who puts on the better show has a better chance of sticking with the company and moving up the ranks of the Middleweight division.
My pick: Okami by a long drawn out unanimous decision

* Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons
Nice to see Rivera back in the octagon after his family problems. It'll be an emotional moment and it's tough to predict this one. Submission losses to Dan Miller and Marvin Eastman on his record lead me to suspect his ability to fight on the big stage against quality opponents. Rivera will always be a journeyman but one with above average skill.
My pick: Rivera by decision

* Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan
Al-Hassan won't give up easily but Kingsbury won't be looking to submit "Razor". Kingsbury has been unimpressive after taking a step up in competition.
My pick: Al-Hassan by submission, Round 2

* Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley
My pick: Struve by TKO, Round 2

Televised Card (Spike TV)--
* Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Schafer's no slouch but I like Bader's style. His strong wrestling should be enough to keep "Red" down and eventually he'll finish the job. A good bout to televise on Spike TV.
My pick: Bader TKO (GnP), Round 2

* Heavyweight bout: Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry
My pick: Hardonk TKO, Round 1

Main card (PPV)--
* Catchweight (157 lb) bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer
My pick: Tibau by sub, Round 2

* Catchweight (176 lb) bout: Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
(Yoshida agreed to a catchweight after Johnson weighed-in at 176lbs)
I hate seeing Johnson not make weight for this fight. It would have been the perfect opportunity to continue climbing the ranks of the Welterweight division. Instead we settle for a catchweight bout that Johnson should be able to win. Too bad... he now has everything to lose. He didn't make weight so there is a stain on his reputation and a loss will knock him down the ladder.
My pick: Johnson by TKO, Round 2

* Lightweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
My pick: Fisher by decision

* Heavyweight bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
My pick: Velasquez by decision

* Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto Machida (c) vs. Mauricio Rua
Despite the man-crush my colleague, Jorge, has on Machida, I have consistently picked against him in his last 2 bouts (I even expected his fight with Tito Ortiz to be closer than it was). Now that he's champion I'm tempted to pick him and change my ways. But the one thing that is consistent in all combat sports, be it boxing or MMA, it's the immense difficulty a fighter has in defending his belt for the very first time.

There is a hunger, additional motivation, a level of work ethic, with #1 contenders that allows them to step up their game and perform at a level that is above and beyond anything they've experienced. Once they become champion it's difficult to emulate that drive that won them the championship. I don't think Machida will lose that edge that helped him pick apart Rashad Evans. I think he'll bring it to Shogun and give him fits the entire fight.

I didn't like the way Shogun looked in his loss to Forrest Griffin but he has turned it around since then. Do we chalk that poor performance up to Octagon debut jitters? Is it possible that Rua lost a bit of his swagger. Shogun, arguably, may be the most dangerous striker Machida has ever faced. I don't think Shogun will knock out Machida but he will test Machida's chin.

I don't have any rationale for this pick but I still have my reservations about Machida. Defending the title will be his greatest feat against such a difficult opponent.

My pick: Rua by KO, Round 3

UFC 104 Analysis and Predictions

UFC 104 - Saturday October 24, 2009
What's up party people! This is going to be a very exiting card with some very good fights even in the prelims. On a side note, 3 fighters missed their weight making 2 matches go to a catch weight. I'm exited to see Yushin Okami get into the mix in the middlewight division. I also want to gauge Big Bad Bader's evolution since his TUF victory. This main card is amazing in my opinion; solid, dynamic fighters that are sure to keep the excitement level at a maximum. Then there is of course, The Dragon, The Master, Sensei... Lyoto Machida. I've followed his career and was a big fan of his before people knew him here in the states. I told people "this guy is Money... no question". Many doubted me and questioned my outlook as biased because I'm also a Shotokan Karateka with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (and Judo... yeah, I threw that in!). I've always said that traditional Karate was a great foundation style for MMA. If you don't beleive me maybe you've heard of George St. Pierre (Kyokushin Kai), Bas Rutten (Kyokushin Kai), Frank Mir (Isshin Ryu), Takanori Gomi (Mushinjuku) and Chuck Liddell (Kajukenbo) just to name a few. Don't get me wrong, I like Mauricio Rua, and I think if anybody can pose a threat to Machida, it is definitely Shogun. Ok, enough of my yapping... on to the fights! Oss.


Preliminary card

* Heavyweight Stefan Struve (17-3) vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)
Struve is a 3-1 underdog against powerhouse wrestler Gromley even with his 6'11" frame, impressive submissions skills and kickboxing prowess. Sure, Gromley is hot on a 6 fight winning streak and Struve lost to Dos Santos on his debut fight, but I'm going against the grain and say that Struve is going to keep Gromley at bay fighting from the outside and get a 3rd Round submission or TKO.

* Light Heavyweight Kyle Kingsbury (7-2) vs. Razak Al-Hassan (6-1)
Here we have 2 fighters that have yet to win a match in the UFC. Kingsbury didn't show much in TUF 8 and Al-Hassan got his elbow dislocated in his debut. Kingsbury is a striker with heavy hands and although Al-Hassan is billed as a submission fighter, he looked like a fish out of water on the ground against Cantwell. I say Al-Hassan's Tae Kwon Do based striking will be different enough to overwhelm Kingsbury and he'll win via TKO in round 2. I say this reluctantly as Kingsbury can win quite easily and... I'll just say it "I have very little faith in TKD"... there it's said.

* Middleweight Jorge Rivera (16-7) vs. Rob Kimmons (22-4)
Jorge Rivera is an experienced Muay Thai striker with solid power, unfortunately he is on his way out. He always does well in smaller fights but never really manages to get anything going against top level opponents. Rob Kimmons is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter with power and youth. I think Kimmons will ease Rivera's transition to retirement. Look for a 2nd Round submission.

* Middleweight Yushin Okami (23-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (23-10-1)
As a NCAA All-American and Olympic alternate in Greco, Chael Sonnen is a talented wrestler. Unfortunately for him, Okami is a bigger and craftier wrestler with a comparatively better stand-up game. Okami tends to start slowly but he will pressure Sonnen with strikes and work the clinch with strikes and pin him against the fence imposing his size. Okami pulls out a victory via sub or TKO in the 3rd.

Spike TV card

* Heavyweight Antoni Hardonk (8-5) vs. Patrick Barry (4-1)
This is should be a slugfest between two big kick boxers. Hardonk is a much bigger heavyweight and should use his reach to execute an outside game and work the legs and then go for the KO. Barry trains with Rick Rufus and is small for a heavyweight; he'll have to work to get inside overwhelm Hardonk. IF this fight goes to the ground it will be a slumber-fest as neither fighter is very proficient on the mat. I think Hardonk has the edge and win the fight with a 2nd round KO.

* Light Heavyweight Ryan Bader (9-0) vs. Eric Schafer (11-3-2)
Bader is a big powerful wrestler with a very decent stand-up game training at Arizona Combat Sports. He's shown great progress since his TUF 8 victory and should dictate the pace of the fight. Shaffer is a solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter that also trains kick boxing with Rick Rufus. Although Bader is a beast on the ground, he may leave an opening for a submission from shaffer. I think Bader has the edge on the feet and will actually win it stading. 3rd Round TKO, or even KO.

Main card

* Catchweight (176 lb) Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3)
This a fight between two great fighters. Yoshida is an amazing Judoka and Rumble is a wrestler with good stand-up. Johnson has always had trouble making the huge weight cut from 200 lbs. but I'm surprised he missed the mark. Johnson will use his strength and athleticism, not to mention his reach advantage to overwhelm Yoshida and get his victory in the 2nd round via TKO or KO.

* Catchweight (157 lb) Gleison Tibau (19-6) vs. Josh Neer (25-8-1)
neither fighter made weight, and both being former welterweights, there is no real size advantage. Tibau is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace with adequate stand-up from ATT. Neer is crafty veteran and a product of Miletich. Both are dangerous on the mat and will probably keep it standing to cancel out the grappling advantage. I think Tibau has a slight edge and he can eke out a decision.

* Lightweight Joe Stevenson (30-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (23-4)
This is a classic battle of styles. Stevenson is a wrestler with decent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (I still say decent even with his recent promotion to Black Belt) and a monster top game and ground and pound. Fisher is a Miletich fighter with great stand-up and lots of heart. Fisher will try to keep it on the feet while he creates angles and punishes Stevenson. Joe "Daddy" should forget about engaging and work for the take down and maybe work his infamous guillotine. Fisher is well rounded but has shown a weak defense against take downs so Stevenson, if he sticks to being a wrestler, should submit Fisher in the 2nd. round.

* Heavyweight Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)
Another battle of styles, but now supersized. Rothwell is a decorated Miletich striker with a lot of experience and big power in his hands. Velazques is crushing the division with his impressive wrestling and devastating power. Cain demonstrated that he can take a hit by eating Kongo's strikes right on the button and still taking the victory. Like Kongo, Rothwell is a powerful striker with poor take down defense. This fight should be no different except that Cain's trainers at AKA should have improved his stand-up thus making this a more one sided fight. Velazquez get's his 7th win via ground and pound in the 3rd stanza.

* Light Heavyweight Championship *
Lyoto "the Dragon " Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3)
Wow... where to begin. Rua is an amazing fighter: a product of chute boxe that dominated PRIDE back in the day. He has a very aggressive muay thai style and solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Machida uses classic Shotokan karate footwork to create angles and opportunities to punish his opponents, and just as quickly gets out of the way. He is also an great grappler with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo (sound familiar!). He cleaved a path through the division and actually improved his illusive style with more aggression culminating in the dismantlement of "Sugar" Rashad Evan and winning the belt. So who can take Machida down? not many people, but Rua has the skill set for the job, hence his undeserved title shot. Rua has had a disappointing start in the UFC losing to Forrest Griffin, barely defeating Mark Coleman and finally knocking out a much diminished Chuck Liddell. But, if one follows this progression this could be the fight that brings the Shogun of old to the octagon. I've always said that the only way to have a shot at Machida is to pressure him with aggression and don't let him settle and find his distance and rhythm. This type of fight is tailor made for Rua and his "always forward" striking. Rua has to come with punches, kicks, knees and minimize Machida's footwork. Like I said, this will give Shogun "a shot", but I think the faster Machida will use his impeccable footwork and laser guided punching to frustrate and ultimately string together a devastating combo on Rua. The only other way for Rua to gain an advantage is to take Machida to the ground and impose his power to pin him down and cause damage. Here again, I think Machida will use his take down defense. And even if it goes to the ground, Machida will have enough to either submit, or at least keep safe from Rua's onslaught. I admit that I am biased, but my prediction is not. Machida, TKO or KO 3rd round. Yeah Rogan, this is he Machida era!

UFC 103 Quick Picks

There may not be any titles on the line tonight. What we can expect is a shuffling of the rankings in many divisions (esp. welterweight and lightweight) which will shape the list of contenders for each weight class' championships.

Emerson v Dos Anjos (Lightweight - 155 lb)
[Dos Anjos via submission - Round 1]

Matyushenko v Pokrajac (Light Heavyweight - 205)
[V-Mat via TKO - Round 3]

Marshall v Brilz (Light Heavyweight - 205)
[Marshall via sub - Round 3]

Story v Foster (Welterweight - 170)
[?]

Oliveira v Lentz (Lightweight - 155 lb)
Giving the edge to Minnesota MMA's own Lentz
[Lentz via decision]

Jim Miller v Lopez (Lightweight - 155 lb)
[Miller via decision]

McFedries v Drwal (Middleweight - 185)
[McFedries via KO - Round 2]

Escudero v Cole Miller (Lightweight - 155 lb)
[Escudero via sub - Round 1]

Griffin v Franca (Lightweight - 155 lb)
Should be an exciting fight. Fight of the Night contender here.
I say Griffin by decision
[Griffin via decision]

Koscheck v Trigg (Welterweight - 170)
I'm rooting for Trigg but Koscheck should win this by decision. Kos will have his hands full and will lose if he gets sloppy or cocky.
[Koscheck via decision]

Kampmann v Daley (Welterweight - 170)
[?]

CroCop v Dos Santos (Heavyweight - 265)
I question CroCop's motivation here. Dos Santos is hungry and needs a big win on his resume, CroCop will do.
[Dos Santos via sub - Round 2]

Franklin v Belfort (A "catch weight" bout at 195)
Belfort needs to apply pressure on Franklin in the first round and if he can rock Ace at least once, Belfort should be able to finish the fight in the 2nd via T/KO. If he's tentative and doesn't challenge Ace, then Franklin can pull off the decision once he's comfortable and can dictate the pace of the fight.
[Belfort via T/KO - Round 2]

UFC 103 Analysis and Predictions

UFC 103 - Saturday September 19, 2009
Undercard Analysis and predictions

Lightweight bout: Efrain Escudero (11-0) vs. Cole Miller (15-3) -Miller 3^rd rd. Submission

Middleweight bout: Drew McFedries (8-5) vs. Tomasz Drwal (16-2) – Drwal KO 2^nd rd.

Lightweight bout: Jim Miller (14-2) vs. Steve Lopez (12-1) - Miller Decision

Lightweight bout: Rafaello Oliveira (9-1) vs. Nik Lentz (16-3-1) - Lentz 2^nd rd. TKO punches

Welterweight bout: Rick Story (7-3) vs. Brian Foster (12-3) – Foster Decision

Light Heavyweight bout: Eliot Marshall (7-3) vs. Jason Brilz (17-1-1) – Brilz Decision

Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko (22-4) vs. Igor Pokrajac (21-5) - Matyushenko Decision

Lightweight bout: Rob Emerson (9-7, 1NC) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (11-4) – dos Anjos 1^st rd. TKO

Main Card Analysis and predictions

Catchweight (195 lb) bout: Rich Franklin (25-4, 1NC) vs. Vitor Belfort (18-8) - Belfort 2^nd rd. KO Punches

Heavyweight bout: Mirko Filipović (25-6-2, 1NC) vs. Junior dos Santos (8-1) - Filipović 2^nd rd. KO Headkick

Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann (15-2) vs. Paul Daley (21-8-2) - Kampmann 2^ndrd Submission

Welterweight bout: Josh Koscheck (12-4) vs. Frank Trigg (19-6) - Koscheck Decision

Catchweight (159 lb) bout: Tyson Griffin (13-2) vs. Hermes Franca (19-7) - Griffin Decision

Enjoy UFC 103 and "Keep phucking that chicken"!

Alan's Quick Picks for UFC 102

Hey fight fans,

Sorry for the silence the past couple of weeks. It's been a busy time for us on this end. If you haven't checked out Jorge's picks for UFC 102 (this Saturday: UFC 102 - Couture v Nogueira), check them out here.

Here are my picks:

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Main card:
- Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
This is a match we would have loved to see a few years ago. Though a little less significant now, it's still going to be a fun main event to watch. Hard for me to imagine Couture finishing off "Big Nog" in 3 rounds. Also, Nogueira seemed to have lost a step in his previous two bouts. I give the decision victory to "The Natural"

- Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
Jardine is an enigma. Some fights he is able to come out with his unorthodox striking and befuddle opponents. Other times he looks completely outmatched and outclassed (see: v. Houston Alexander, v. Vanderlei Silva). Thiago Silva on the other hand has been the model of consistency who happened to run into the buzzsaw known as Lyoto Machida. Can't see Silva giving up much to Jardine. Yet at the same time I can imagine a scenario where Jardine may frustrate Silva to the point where he makes one little mistake and gets caught.

I may do better by flipping a coin but I'm going with my brain rather than my gut and saying Silva by TKO in the 2nd.

- Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia
I am VERY excited about this match-up! Presumably, the winner of this contest will be the next challenger to the Middleweight champion whether it be Anderson Silva or Dan Henderson (rumored for UFC 105). This is a HUGE step up in competition for Maia and I personally liked what I've seen from him and think he could take it to Marquardt.

Marquardt has done a decent job of working his way back into title contention but my bias will kick in here and I'd like to see someone new step up to try and take the middleweight championship. Nate "The Great" will always be in the upper echelon of the division but whether he is ready to be champion could be revealed in this fight.

I'm calling Maia by mild upset with a sub in the 1st.

- Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Vera cannot afford to be lazy against a game opponent in Soszynski. Soszynski also cannot expect to pull off subs the way he has in many of his UFC bouts recently. Also, when Krzysztof has fought anyone that would qualify as a "step up" in competition, he has fallen short. I suspect that someone as talented and road-tested as Vera will give him fits. I give the edge to Vera and call it by TKO in the 1st round.

- Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt
Leben is back in action almost a year after his loss to Bisping in the UK at UFC 89. He had tested positive for steroids after that bout. It's hard for the casual fan to determine what kind of shape Leben will be in or even how his training has changed in this past year.

Rosholt is a dynamic wrestler who looked pretty good in his last bout in the WEC (despite getting beaten in the standup) vs Nissen Osterneck and looked very pedestrian against Dan Miller in his UFC debut back in February.

With both men looking to comeback from a tough loss (and presumably to avoid the dreaded roster cuts that may follow this bout for the loser), I expect Leben to step up and take control of this fight with constantly pushing the pace and being the aggressor he's been been in the past. He may be taken down by Rosholt but he is no slouch on the ground and his superior striking should be the edge needed to pull out the victory over Rosholt (TKO: 3rd round)

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Prelims:
- Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer
Like Jorge said, Gonzaga by any method he wants! lol... I'm calling Gonzaga via submission in the 2nd.

- Aaron Simpson vs. Ed Herman
Herman via armbar in round 1

- Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow
Russow by guillotine round 2

- Tim Hague vs. Todd Duffee
My regular anti-ATT pick: Tim Hague by striking (b/c ATT guys can't take a punch)

- Nick Catone vs. Mark Munoz
Catone by TKO Round 2 (Munoz needs to be more selective about how aggressive he is in the cage)

- Marcus Aurelio vs. Evan Dunham
Dunham by decision - possibly FotN (Aurelio is tougher than the average ATT guy but between Xtreme Couture and ATT I'll go with Couture every time)

UFC 102 analysis and Predictions

UFC 102 - Saturday August 29, 2009
Undercard Analysis and predictions


Marcus Aurelio (18-7) v Evan Dunham (8-0) - Aurelio, 2nd rd. submission
Nick Catone (7-1) v Mark Munoz (5-1) - Catone, Decision
Tim Hague (10-1) v Todd Duffee (4-0) - Hague, 3rd. rd. g&pTKO
Justin McCully (9-4-2) v Mike Russow (11-1, 1 NC) - Russow, 3rd. rd. Submission or TKO
Ed Herman (15-7) v Aaron Simpson (5-0) - Simpson, Decision
Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4) v Chris Tuchscherer (17-1, 1 NC) - Gonzaga, anything he wants, 1st, maybe 2nd. rd.

Main Card Analysis and predictions


Brandon Vera (10-3) v Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1) - Vera, 2nd. rd. TKO or Submission
Nate Marquardt (31-8-2) v Demian Maia (11-1) - Marquart, 3rd. rd. KO or g&pTKO
Chris Leben (18-6) v Jake Rosholt (5-1) - Leben, 3rd. rd. TKO, maybe Decision
Keith Jardine (14-5-1) v Thiago Silva (13-1) - Silva, 2nd. rd. KO or TKO

MAIN EVENT Analysis and predictions



Randy Couture (16-9) v Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1) - Couture, Decision

Our Predictions for Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg

Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Main Card-
1) Mike Kyle v Fabricio Werdum
Alan G: Werdum
(can't see him losing this one to Kyle and he's hungry for his title shot)
Jorge A: Werdum
(better BJJ and has gotten a lot better in kickboxing from training with Cro-Cop)
Miko A: TBD

2) Jay Hieron v Jesse Taylor
Alan G: Taylor
(Seems like Taylor will have the strength advantage thus canceling out the wrestling aspect of the bout. I like the the upset here)
Jorge A: Heiron
(Awesome wrestling, did well in IFL and he's one of Couture's main trainers in Las Vegas)
Miko A: TBD

3) Gilbert Melendez v Hitsuhiro Ishida
Alan G: Melendez
(and hopefully to take on Thomson before the year's end)
Jorge A: Ishida
(I'm torn on this one but I'll go with Ishida)
Miko A: TBD

4) Renato 'Babalu' Sobral v Gegard Mousasi
Alan G: Mousasi
(Mousasi is a beast and Babalu "won" the belt with a doctor stoppage on a nasty elbow to Bobby Southworth last year. Another upset IMO)
Jorge A: Sobral
(Better in the ground and standing. I expect takedown and g-n-p)
Miko A: TBD

5) Gina Carano v Cristiane 'Cyborg' Santos
Alan G: Carano
(Hard to pick against Cyborg but conditioning may be the key here and I trust Carano's training at Xtreme Couture over Cyborg's at Chute Boxe)
Jorge A: Carano
(Both great stand up fighters. Santos' only loss came via submission which is not Gina's strength. I think Gina needs to keep it technical and not brawl with the more aggressive Santos. She needs to use her take down defence and maintain the center of the ring. Santos on the other hand has to pressure Gina and turn it into a brawl, and work for the takedown. Santos has to watch for the counter punching and possible leg kicks. This may be a biased and perhaps an ill fated prediction but the first women's champ should be a woman, so Gina FTW)
Miko A: TBD

Carano v Cyborg - A Female Perspective

We at NYC MMA Fans are proud to bring to you some insight from our supporter and good friend, Miko Abreu.

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"Japanese martial arts has been a part of my life in some way or another for as long as I can remember. It is a part of my heritage and recreation. With a life-long love of martial arts in general and an ever increasing appreciation for its mental and physical discipline, I am excited about the upcoming women’s mixed martial arts match on Saturday.

On August 15th, at Strikeforce, Gina “Conviction” Carano faces off against Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos for the women’s 145 lb MMA championship. This is the first-ever women’s match by a major US promoter with Carano (7-0), specializing in Muay Thai and boxing and Santos (7-1), specializing in Muay Thai and BJJ.

MMA fans have shown much anticipation for this match up as it is the probably the biggest fight in women’s MMA history. Women’s matches are generally 3 rounds lasting three minutes each round. Men’s rounds are generally 5 rounds lasting 5 minutes each. Strikeforce applied to the Washington and California State Athletic Commissions for approval of the 5-minute, 5-round championship match-ups for women. The increased amount of time in the cage for these women will be a first for both fighters. It will be interesting to see who can survive, mentally, in the five 5-minute rounds as opposed to the three 3-minute rounds they are accustomed to.

Santos’ one loss came by way of submission, which Carano has not yet proven to have mastered. This is a tough one to call with both having excellent takedown defense and used to dominating their opponents. Carano is no doubt Santos’ toughest opponent yet. MMA fans, stay tuned…"

Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg (Preview)

This Saturday marks a milestone in MMA history as Strikeforce will be the first major promotion in the US to crown a women's champion in MMA. The card will be broadcast on Showtime. It had been slated to be one of the most stacked cards in recent history (including UFC cards). Sadly, due to injuries (among other reasons), the card has lost some of it's luster.

Here is the original main card:
Gina Carano v Cristiane 'Cyborg' Santos - Women's Championship (145 lb)
Joe Riggs v Nick Diaz - Welterweight Championship (170 lb)
Josh Thomson v Gilbert Melendez - Lightweight Championship (155 lb)
Alistair Overeem v Fabricio Verdum - Heavyweight Championship (265 lb)

Four championships were on the line. Big names up and down the televised portion of the card. It looked as if August 15, 2009 would be the day Strikeforce firmly planted their flag in the American MMA fan's consciousness. Carano/Cyborg will still main event the card but lets revisit how the card changed over the past few weeks.

(1) Joe Riggs had to pull out of the bout with Diaz after having an adverse reaction to a drug he was taking. A few weeks ago, Affliction had ceased MMA operations and went back to just being a clothing company. Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker signed Jay Hieron (formerly with Affliction) to a contract after the cancellation of the Affliction: Trilogy PPV. Hieron would replace Riggs in the title bout with Diaz.

Diaz subsequently failed to take his mandatory pre-fight drug test with the California State Athletic Commission this past week and was pulled off the card. (FYI, Five Ounces of Pain did an excellent job documenting the details, click here). Now the bout with Hieron - who has been training for months without a fight and needs a paycheck - will be against TUF 'bad boy' Jesse Taylor.

Some of you may remember Jesse Taylor as the idiot who cost himself the chance at competing for a UFC contract in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 7 after getting drunk and proclaiming he was already a UFC fighter at a club in Vegas. This in addition to groping waitresses at said bar and kicking out a window in a limo provided to the TUF competitors by Dana White. Hieron v Taylor will NOT be for a championship but Taylor has been impressive outside the UFC and this should still be a compelling welterweight contest.

(2) Melendez v Thomson was a rematch of their championship bout in June 2008 when Thomson captured the lightweight belt from Melendez with a 5 round unanimous decision. Thomson has not recover fully from an ankle injury (the same one that postponed the original rematch between these two in April 2009). In the meantime, Melendez has won the interim lightweight belt and this rematch was a unification bout. instead, Thomson will be replaced on the card by Mitsuhiro Ishida. He may not be a well-known name to MMA fans in the states but he can def make a name for himself on this card.

(3) Strikeforce Heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem had a lingering hand injury that forced him to be taken off the card. Verdum will still fight on Saturday, though not for a title, against American Kickboxing Academy's (AKA) Mike Kyle.

(4) With the loss of two championship bouts Strikeforce looked to the Affliction card for replacements. They rescheduled the bout between Renato 'Babalu' Sobral and Gegard Mousasi (originally on Affliction: Trilogy) for this Saturday. Since Babalu is the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champion, Strikeforce will make the Sobral/Mousasi bout a title fight.

Here is the updated main card (as of 8/14/09):
Gina Carano v Cristiane 'Cyborg' Santos - Women's Championship (145 lb)
Renato Sobral v Gegard Mousasi - Light Heavyweight Championship (205 lb)
Gilbert Melendez v Mitsuhiro Ishida - Interim Lightweight Championship (155 lb)
Mike Kyle v Fabricio Verdum - Heavyweight bout (265 lb)
Jay Hieron v Jesse Taylor - Welterweight bout (170 lb)

Despite the turmoil and last minutes changes, Strikeforce has put together a night packed with quality MMA action. With the recent signing of the Last Emperor, Fedor Emilianenko, you can expect Strikeforce to talk up that signing and perhaps announce his first opponent as well.

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Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg will take place on Saturday night August 15, 2009 live from San Jose, CA. It will be broadcast on Showtime and coverage begins at 10:30PM EST.

Recap of UFC 101 and a Brief Look at WEC 42

Hello fight fans,
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My reactions to UFC 101:
A decent card put together by the UFC last night. Philly proved to be a fairly intelligent MMA fan base with knowledgeable fans that appreciate the ground game. Never mind the fight that broke out in the crowd during the Riley-Nelson bout (see the link at the end of this post)

1) As far as my predictions, it was a pretty rotten night for me (4-7).
[The splits: 0-5 for the undercard, 4-2 on the main card (Nelson vs. Riley moved to main card), 4-3 on televised bouts, 0-2 on co-main events.]

For the two feature bouts, I worked so hard to make a case for: (1) underdogs Forrest Griffin and Kenny Florian and (2) why the favorites COULD lose, that I overlooked the obvious. Anderson Silva and BJ Penn are freaks of nature! WOW!

2) Sadollah-Hendricks: Hard to claim early stoppage by Dan Miragliotta (Some of you may recall Miragliotta was the same ref that stopped the fight between Kimbo and James Thompson). Sadollah had a choice: block or try to get back up. He had difficulty getting up and in the meantime he was getting hit repeatedly. If it wasn't for the flurry of uppercuts that knocked him down in the first place Dan may not have stopped it but you're talking about close to a dozen clean punches that landed in mere seconds.

One of the ref's responsibilities is to protect the fighters. This is what separates MMA from boxing. You want guys beaten to a pulp with their brains knocked into next week, watch boxing and see those fighter 20 years from now and tell me they're better off than the MMA fighters.

3) Also, I'm not looking to make excuses for Forrest Griffin but am I the only one who thinks he looked out of sorts? He was very tentative (yes, I know it's Anderson Silva across from him in the Octagon but this seemed different). Griffin ran off after the bout and still managed to win Fight of the Night. I wonder if this was a reward for fighting hurt/sick/etc. Food for thought but it'll add fuel to the naysayers' fire when they claim that MMA is rigged (like pro wrestling).

4) I said it earlier I'll say it again. BJ Penn? WOW! What a slick sub on KenFlo! And Ken was barely winning the fight scraping by much the way I expected. But it looked as if KenFlo tired and to Penn's credit BJ exploded for his takedown and stayed on top of Kenny until he took his back and sunk in the RNC. Ultimately, no matter what you may think of BJ's conditioning issues in the past, you cannot give that man an opening and Kenny did just that.

I had the first round fairly even but Penn's striking edged out KenFlo's Octagon control (an often overlooked judging criteria by many MMA fans, new and old). The second round went to Kenny and the third was another close one which I hesitantly gave to Florian. If we were to stay with the scorecards, BJ Penn dominated round #4 but the RNC was the exclamation point.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WEC 42:
We're hours away from tonight's WEC 42 on Versus (check your local listings for the live broadcast and the replays during the week).



(Note: difficulties in compressing the rest of the video resulted in a late post. To follow is the transcript from the rest of the video)

Alan: "...who is a tough opponent but has come upon some hard luck lately. Curran lost to Urijah Faber. His bounce back fight was a loss against future featherweight champion Mike Brown. Last fight was against Benavides, a decision loss. Curran needs this win to bounce back. No word on what will happen with his career should he lose this fight but a 4-fight losing streak is not what he needs at this point in his career.

The main event is between Miguel Angel Torres, the bantamweight champion versus Brian Bowles. Torres is on a 17 fight win streak. He's fought five times in the WEC with a record of 4-0 in championship bouts. This will be his 4th title defense. He has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Carlson Gracie, Jr which is not something that should be dismissed as this is a big deal in the MMA world. He's a fairly precise striker once he establishes his range. If you look at him he looks like a skinny lanky dude but in actuality he's a dangerous striker in addition to being excellent on the ground. Anyone who challenges Torres will have to be at his best.

Which bring us to Brian Bowles. He's 7-0 and he is a wrestler and boxer. He hasn't had a fight go to a decision yet. He's managed to win 5 fights by submission and 2 by TKO. His submission wins have come via rear naked choke and guillotine. It's a fairly safe bet that he won't be able to pull off either of those moves on Torres. As some of you have read in my comments above Stephan Bonnar's suggestion for Bowles to win the fight is something that may work short term but not something he can sustain for 5 full rounds. It is essential that he uses his wrestling skills to his advantage to fare well on the judge's scorecard. One of the overlooked aspects of judging. It's not just striking or grappling but it's also about ring/cage control and dictating where the fight goes. he's able to do this with his wrestling then Bowles has a good chance of winning a decision against Torres. Although 'lay and pray' is not necessarily the way to go but his wrestling is the key to victory for him.

Nevertheless, I'm giving this fight to Torres who I suspect will make Bowles look like a lesser fighter. Bowles is definitely a top contender and maybe one of the toughest Torres will face in a while. But it's someone Torres should be able to beat and I think it'll end in a TKO in the 3rd round.

We have a few other exciting things in line for this week with the Strikeforce event coming up. Keep your eyes on the blog. We're expecting some commentary from a special guest blogger who will provide a fresh perspective on the Strikeforce card. Until then... Peace."

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Related Links:
i) For SI's Josh Gross' article on Brian Bowles, click here.

ii) Video of the fight in the crowd at UFC 101 last night, click here.

iii) Five Ounces of Pain article: "Anderson Silva makes great fighters look bad"

UFC 101 Predictions

Alan's UFC 101 Picks:

Intro-


Undercard Picks-
Part 2


Part 3


Main Card Picks-
Part 4


Part 5 (Silva v Griffin)


Part 6 (Penn v Florian)


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Upcoming MMA events
8/9/09 = WEC 43:
Miguel Angel Torres(c) v Brian Bowles; Jeff Curran v Takeya Mizugaki

8/15/09 = A STACKED Strikeforce card featuring:
Gina Carano v Cyborg Santos (the female one); Nick Diaz v Jay Hieron (for the Strikeforce Welterweight belt); Renato "Babalu" Sobral v Gegard Mousasi (Light Heavyweight championship bout); Gilbert Melendez v Mitsuhiro Ishida (for Interim Lightweight Championship); Mike Kyle v Fabricio Verdum

Stay tuned for our take on the upcoming events soon.

- Alan

Inuagural Post

Hello blogosphere,

With UFC 101 right around the corner (and in our neck of the woods: Philadelphia, PA), it's about time that myself and J bring you our perspective on everything MMA-related. We will provide commentary on the MMA landscape along with predictions of most major MMA cards and post-fight analysis of the events.

Hope you enjoy the blog and we can't wait to hear your feedback.

- Alan