UFC 104 Analysis and Predictions

UFC 104 - Saturday October 24, 2009
What's up party people! This is going to be a very exiting card with some very good fights even in the prelims. On a side note, 3 fighters missed their weight making 2 matches go to a catch weight. I'm exited to see Yushin Okami get into the mix in the middlewight division. I also want to gauge Big Bad Bader's evolution since his TUF victory. This main card is amazing in my opinion; solid, dynamic fighters that are sure to keep the excitement level at a maximum. Then there is of course, The Dragon, The Master, Sensei... Lyoto Machida. I've followed his career and was a big fan of his before people knew him here in the states. I told people "this guy is Money... no question". Many doubted me and questioned my outlook as biased because I'm also a Shotokan Karateka with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (and Judo... yeah, I threw that in!). I've always said that traditional Karate was a great foundation style for MMA. If you don't beleive me maybe you've heard of George St. Pierre (Kyokushin Kai), Bas Rutten (Kyokushin Kai), Frank Mir (Isshin Ryu), Takanori Gomi (Mushinjuku) and Chuck Liddell (Kajukenbo) just to name a few. Don't get me wrong, I like Mauricio Rua, and I think if anybody can pose a threat to Machida, it is definitely Shogun. Ok, enough of my yapping... on to the fights! Oss.


Preliminary card

* Heavyweight Stefan Struve (17-3) vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)
Struve is a 3-1 underdog against powerhouse wrestler Gromley even with his 6'11" frame, impressive submissions skills and kickboxing prowess. Sure, Gromley is hot on a 6 fight winning streak and Struve lost to Dos Santos on his debut fight, but I'm going against the grain and say that Struve is going to keep Gromley at bay fighting from the outside and get a 3rd Round submission or TKO.

* Light Heavyweight Kyle Kingsbury (7-2) vs. Razak Al-Hassan (6-1)
Here we have 2 fighters that have yet to win a match in the UFC. Kingsbury didn't show much in TUF 8 and Al-Hassan got his elbow dislocated in his debut. Kingsbury is a striker with heavy hands and although Al-Hassan is billed as a submission fighter, he looked like a fish out of water on the ground against Cantwell. I say Al-Hassan's Tae Kwon Do based striking will be different enough to overwhelm Kingsbury and he'll win via TKO in round 2. I say this reluctantly as Kingsbury can win quite easily and... I'll just say it "I have very little faith in TKD"... there it's said.

* Middleweight Jorge Rivera (16-7) vs. Rob Kimmons (22-4)
Jorge Rivera is an experienced Muay Thai striker with solid power, unfortunately he is on his way out. He always does well in smaller fights but never really manages to get anything going against top level opponents. Rob Kimmons is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter with power and youth. I think Kimmons will ease Rivera's transition to retirement. Look for a 2nd Round submission.

* Middleweight Yushin Okami (23-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (23-10-1)
As a NCAA All-American and Olympic alternate in Greco, Chael Sonnen is a talented wrestler. Unfortunately for him, Okami is a bigger and craftier wrestler with a comparatively better stand-up game. Okami tends to start slowly but he will pressure Sonnen with strikes and work the clinch with strikes and pin him against the fence imposing his size. Okami pulls out a victory via sub or TKO in the 3rd.

Spike TV card

* Heavyweight Antoni Hardonk (8-5) vs. Patrick Barry (4-1)
This is should be a slugfest between two big kick boxers. Hardonk is a much bigger heavyweight and should use his reach to execute an outside game and work the legs and then go for the KO. Barry trains with Rick Rufus and is small for a heavyweight; he'll have to work to get inside overwhelm Hardonk. IF this fight goes to the ground it will be a slumber-fest as neither fighter is very proficient on the mat. I think Hardonk has the edge and win the fight with a 2nd round KO.

* Light Heavyweight Ryan Bader (9-0) vs. Eric Schafer (11-3-2)
Bader is a big powerful wrestler with a very decent stand-up game training at Arizona Combat Sports. He's shown great progress since his TUF 8 victory and should dictate the pace of the fight. Shaffer is a solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter that also trains kick boxing with Rick Rufus. Although Bader is a beast on the ground, he may leave an opening for a submission from shaffer. I think Bader has the edge on the feet and will actually win it stading. 3rd Round TKO, or even KO.

Main card

* Catchweight (176 lb) Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3)
This a fight between two great fighters. Yoshida is an amazing Judoka and Rumble is a wrestler with good stand-up. Johnson has always had trouble making the huge weight cut from 200 lbs. but I'm surprised he missed the mark. Johnson will use his strength and athleticism, not to mention his reach advantage to overwhelm Yoshida and get his victory in the 2nd round via TKO or KO.

* Catchweight (157 lb) Gleison Tibau (19-6) vs. Josh Neer (25-8-1)
neither fighter made weight, and both being former welterweights, there is no real size advantage. Tibau is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace with adequate stand-up from ATT. Neer is crafty veteran and a product of Miletich. Both are dangerous on the mat and will probably keep it standing to cancel out the grappling advantage. I think Tibau has a slight edge and he can eke out a decision.

* Lightweight Joe Stevenson (30-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (23-4)
This is a classic battle of styles. Stevenson is a wrestler with decent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (I still say decent even with his recent promotion to Black Belt) and a monster top game and ground and pound. Fisher is a Miletich fighter with great stand-up and lots of heart. Fisher will try to keep it on the feet while he creates angles and punishes Stevenson. Joe "Daddy" should forget about engaging and work for the take down and maybe work his infamous guillotine. Fisher is well rounded but has shown a weak defense against take downs so Stevenson, if he sticks to being a wrestler, should submit Fisher in the 2nd. round.

* Heavyweight Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)
Another battle of styles, but now supersized. Rothwell is a decorated Miletich striker with a lot of experience and big power in his hands. Velazques is crushing the division with his impressive wrestling and devastating power. Cain demonstrated that he can take a hit by eating Kongo's strikes right on the button and still taking the victory. Like Kongo, Rothwell is a powerful striker with poor take down defense. This fight should be no different except that Cain's trainers at AKA should have improved his stand-up thus making this a more one sided fight. Velazquez get's his 7th win via ground and pound in the 3rd stanza.

* Light Heavyweight Championship *
Lyoto "the Dragon " Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3)
Wow... where to begin. Rua is an amazing fighter: a product of chute boxe that dominated PRIDE back in the day. He has a very aggressive muay thai style and solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Machida uses classic Shotokan karate footwork to create angles and opportunities to punish his opponents, and just as quickly gets out of the way. He is also an great grappler with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo (sound familiar!). He cleaved a path through the division and actually improved his illusive style with more aggression culminating in the dismantlement of "Sugar" Rashad Evan and winning the belt. So who can take Machida down? not many people, but Rua has the skill set for the job, hence his undeserved title shot. Rua has had a disappointing start in the UFC losing to Forrest Griffin, barely defeating Mark Coleman and finally knocking out a much diminished Chuck Liddell. But, if one follows this progression this could be the fight that brings the Shogun of old to the octagon. I've always said that the only way to have a shot at Machida is to pressure him with aggression and don't let him settle and find his distance and rhythm. This type of fight is tailor made for Rua and his "always forward" striking. Rua has to come with punches, kicks, knees and minimize Machida's footwork. Like I said, this will give Shogun "a shot", but I think the faster Machida will use his impeccable footwork and laser guided punching to frustrate and ultimately string together a devastating combo on Rua. The only other way for Rua to gain an advantage is to take Machida to the ground and impose his power to pin him down and cause damage. Here again, I think Machida will use his take down defense. And even if it goes to the ground, Machida will have enough to either submit, or at least keep safe from Rua's onslaught. I admit that I am biased, but my prediction is not. Machida, TKO or KO 3rd round. Yeah Rogan, this is he Machida era!