UFC 104 Quick Picks

Welcome back fight fans!!

The UFC will be bringing us one of the more stacked cards and more intriguing match-ups than we've seen in some time (rather than throwing big names at us in their main events). These may not be 'flashy' fights but the card has the potential to be one of the most exciting top to bottom.

Without further ado, here are my picks for UFC 104:

Undercard--
* Middleweight bout: Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
This fight should be on the PPV and/or the Spike portion of UFC 104 based on name recognition. However, these two are likely to produce the "Snoozer of the Night" so I don't blame Dana White and Joe Silva for putting this on the undercard. A lot rides on this fight for each of these fighters. Win or lose, the one who puts on the better show has a better chance of sticking with the company and moving up the ranks of the Middleweight division.
My pick: Okami by a long drawn out unanimous decision

* Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons
Nice to see Rivera back in the octagon after his family problems. It'll be an emotional moment and it's tough to predict this one. Submission losses to Dan Miller and Marvin Eastman on his record lead me to suspect his ability to fight on the big stage against quality opponents. Rivera will always be a journeyman but one with above average skill.
My pick: Rivera by decision

* Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan
Al-Hassan won't give up easily but Kingsbury won't be looking to submit "Razor". Kingsbury has been unimpressive after taking a step up in competition.
My pick: Al-Hassan by submission, Round 2

* Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley
My pick: Struve by TKO, Round 2

Televised Card (Spike TV)--
* Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Schafer's no slouch but I like Bader's style. His strong wrestling should be enough to keep "Red" down and eventually he'll finish the job. A good bout to televise on Spike TV.
My pick: Bader TKO (GnP), Round 2

* Heavyweight bout: Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry
My pick: Hardonk TKO, Round 1

Main card (PPV)--
* Catchweight (157 lb) bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer
My pick: Tibau by sub, Round 2

* Catchweight (176 lb) bout: Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
(Yoshida agreed to a catchweight after Johnson weighed-in at 176lbs)
I hate seeing Johnson not make weight for this fight. It would have been the perfect opportunity to continue climbing the ranks of the Welterweight division. Instead we settle for a catchweight bout that Johnson should be able to win. Too bad... he now has everything to lose. He didn't make weight so there is a stain on his reputation and a loss will knock him down the ladder.
My pick: Johnson by TKO, Round 2

* Lightweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
My pick: Fisher by decision

* Heavyweight bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
My pick: Velasquez by decision

* Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto Machida (c) vs. Mauricio Rua
Despite the man-crush my colleague, Jorge, has on Machida, I have consistently picked against him in his last 2 bouts (I even expected his fight with Tito Ortiz to be closer than it was). Now that he's champion I'm tempted to pick him and change my ways. But the one thing that is consistent in all combat sports, be it boxing or MMA, it's the immense difficulty a fighter has in defending his belt for the very first time.

There is a hunger, additional motivation, a level of work ethic, with #1 contenders that allows them to step up their game and perform at a level that is above and beyond anything they've experienced. Once they become champion it's difficult to emulate that drive that won them the championship. I don't think Machida will lose that edge that helped him pick apart Rashad Evans. I think he'll bring it to Shogun and give him fits the entire fight.

I didn't like the way Shogun looked in his loss to Forrest Griffin but he has turned it around since then. Do we chalk that poor performance up to Octagon debut jitters? Is it possible that Rua lost a bit of his swagger. Shogun, arguably, may be the most dangerous striker Machida has ever faced. I don't think Shogun will knock out Machida but he will test Machida's chin.

I don't have any rationale for this pick but I still have my reservations about Machida. Defending the title will be his greatest feat against such a difficult opponent.

My pick: Rua by KO, Round 3