Strikeforce: Fedor v Rogers (on CBS)

Welcome back fight fans,

This Saturday (November 7th) we have another stacked MMA card presented by CBS on primetime television for our viewing pleasure! This will be CBS' first foray into MMA since the collapse of EliteXC. With the new partnership forged with Strikeforce, the network hopes to continue providing MMA cards on network TV once a quarter. This seems more likely to continue long term since they are now dealing with an MMA promotion that has been around for years. Strikeforce provides CBS with more stability than any other MMA promotion not named 'UFC'.

Without further ado, here are my picks/predictions/rants on Saturday's big night:

Undercard
* Women's bout (145-lb): Marloes Coenen vs. Roxanne Modafferi
* Welterweight bout: Mark Miller vs. Deray Davis
* Middleweight bout: John Kolosci vs. Shamar Bailey
* Middleweight bout: Louis Taylor vs. Nate Moore
* Welterweight bout: Christian Uflacker vs. Jonatas Novaes
* Bantamweight bout: Jeff Curran vs. Dustin Neace
I'd like to see Jeff Curran bounce back after a pretty bad run at the end of this time in WEC. Neace came in overweight in this bout and I hope that doesn't translate to a distinct advantage in the cage b/c Curran is a class act and it would be a shame for him to lose to a "bigger" fighter who can't be professional enough to make weight. It's one of the biggest insults in the fight game to come in overweight IMO and giving Curran 20% of his purse isn't nearly enough compensation. Very frustrating!!

Pick: Curran by decision

Main card
* Heavyweight bout: Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva
It will be interesting to see how Silva bounces back after being suspended for steroids use last year after capturing the (now-defunct) EliteXC Heavyweight championship. Werdum is on the short list of challengers for the heavyweight title in Strikeforce so we could be looking at a future contender for the heavyweight strap with the winner of this fight (the winner of Fedor-Rogers gets the first shot at Overeem).

I think Silva is a pretty skilled fighter but still a little green. He also won't have the same reach advantage he's had in the past with his other opponents. Werdum should be able to impose his will against Silva who IMO seems to be mismatched in this bout.

Pick: Werdum by TKO, Round 2


* Light Heavyweight bout: Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Is it wrong of me to say I don't really care about this fight much? I don't really see Sokoudjou putting up much of a challenge and expect Mousasi to have a short night (just like his Strikeforce debut a few months ago).

Pick: Mousasi by any method he wants but I'll go with a KO, Round 1.


* Middleweight Championship bout: Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller
Lots of bad blood between these guys leading up to this fight. Shields has looked very unimpressive in his last few fights and 'Mayhem' has seemed to let his ego get the best of him when fighting causing him to underachieve in the ring/cage IMO.

Should be an entertaining bout though I give the slight edge to Shields since he's been on the big national stage before. Jason will need to come in with his head right to win this one.

Pick: Shields by unanimous decision

* Heavyweight bout: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers
I'd love to give this to the hungry underdog who is looking to prove himself. And I'd love to default to the old line about how every fighter has a puncher's chance (esp a guy like Rogers who has powerful hands). But I simply cannot pick against Fedor. I don't feel Rogers will have an opportunity to get a clean shot in to rock Fedor and even if he WERE to do that I suspect Fedor will be able to recover quickly enough to take advantage of a rushing Rogers and possibly KO him with a counterstrike. This being said, Rogers best chance of winning may be taking this to a decision. But again, I can't see Fedor allowing this fight to go the full 3 rounds. At some point he will take Rogers to the ground and take control eventually subbing him.

Rogers is a big, strong fighter and has a 35 pound weight advantage going into the fight. Either way, the "Last Emperor" should be able to take "The Grim" down at will. It's just a matter of whether he feels he should do it early or wait til Rogers gasses a little and then slowly dismantle the big man.

Pick: Fedor by Armbar, Round 3