AG's UFC 108 Quick Picks (1/2/10)

Main Card
* Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva
Silva by decision
* Catchweight (172 lb) bout: Dustin Hazelett vs. Paul Daley
McLovin by sub
* Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout
Lauzon by Sub
* Lightweight bout: Jim Miller vs. Duane Ludwig
Miller by decision
* Heavyweight bout: Junior dos Santos vs. Gilbert Yvel
dos Santos by KO

Spike TV Card
* Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs. Jacob Volkmann
Kampmann
* Lightweight bout: Cole Miller vs. Dan Lauzon
Lauzon

Preliminary Card
* Middleweight bout: Mark Munoz vs. Ryan Jensen
Jensen
* Welterweight bout: Mike Pyle vs. Jake Ellenberger
Ellenberger
* Lightweight bout: Rafaello Oliveira vs. John Gunderson
Gunderson

AG's UFC 107 Quick Picks (12/12/09)

My apologies for the lack of 'analysis'. To follow are strictly picks with minimal commentary:

Preliminary Card

* Welterweight bout: Kevin Burns vs. TJ Grant
Grant - Submission - Rd 1

* Welterweight bout: DaMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia
Garcia grinds out a decision

* Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares
The jiu-jitsu skills of these two will cancel out here. The better striker wins. I don't think Palhares can hang IMO.
Linhares - KO - Rd 2

* Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch
Blink and you might miss out on this fight.
Hendricks - TKO - Rd 1

* Lightweight bout: Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson
Nelson - decision

* Catchweight bout (195 lbs): Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia
Belcher - KO - Rd 2

Main Card
* Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Fitch - Will show us that trademark snarl after his victory via GnP in Rd 2

* Heavyweight bout: Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve
Buentello's a tough opponent but Struve has freakish size and good jiu jitsu for a heavyweight.
Struve - Submission - Rd 1

* Lightweight bout: Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
Guida hads been training with Greg Jackson's camp and we'll see if this helps Guida evolve. Admittedly, Guida will keep a relentless pace which will be difficult for KenFlo to keep up with but Florian should adapt and turn this fight around in the end.
Florian - decision

* Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
A bigger, stronger Mir will donimate leaving no doubt that he should be considered as a title contender in the first part of 2010.
Mir - Submission - Rd 2

* Lightweight Championship bout: B.J. Penn (c) vs. Diego Sanchez
I'm a big Sanchez fan and love that he moved down to Lightweight. He'll give BJ fits early on but unless he can take 'The Prodigy' out early in the fight, 'Nightmare' will end up on the receiving end of a Penn beatdown.
BJ retains the belt with a TKO in Rd 4

TUF 10 Finale (12/5/09) - AG's Quick Picks

Preliminary Card
* Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Joe Brammer
He'll be a long way from Iowa, but the bright lights of Vegas won't affect Brammer in his UFC debut against Bocek.

* Welterweight bout: John Howard vs. Dennis Hallman
Would it be wrong of me to say who cares?? Howard, decision.

* Light Heavyweight bout: Brian Stann vs. Rodney Wallace
Stann better win because I REFUSE to accept that some unknown from SC (Rodney Wallace) is using 'Sho Nuff the Master' as his nickname!!!

* Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Justin Wren
I like Wren in this one

* Heavyweight bout: Darrill Schoonover vs. James McSweeney
McSweeney KO's "Titties"

Main Card
* Heavyweight bout: Marcus Jones vs. Matt Mitrione
I wanna see 'Big Baby'/'Darkness' beat the crap out of 'Meathead'. Should be a quick win once Jones gets to the ground. I see a Kimura in Meathead's future in the 1st.

* Lightweight bout: Frank Edgar vs. Matt Veach
I liked the match-up better when it was Pellegrino v Edgar. Frankie gets back on track with this one handing Veach his first professional loss (by decision).

* Catchweight (215 lb) bout: Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander
OOOOHHHHH Y'all know I wanna pick Kimbo! And y'all KNOW the only reason this bout is on the main card is BECAUSE everyone wants to see Kimbo (whether to KTFO Houston or to get KTFO by Houston). It'll be a slugfest that will do nothing more than fulfill the bloodlust of the fans watching the bout. Alexander gets the cleaner shot in and rocks Kimbo's world... but not until the latter part of the 2nd round.

* Light Heavyweight bout: Matt Hamill vs. Jon Jones
I like Matt... a lot... but Jones... *sigh*, tough to pick against. Jones takes this one in the 2nd (TKO)

* Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub
Nelson's experience proves to be the edge here. I like Schaub's chances to take this to a distance but will fall short.

UFC 106 Quick Picks

I'm not very excited about this particular UFC. I had it marked on my calendar when Carwin was challenging Lesnar and moving Tito and Forrest to main event status just didn't cut it for me. Nevertheless, here are my picks for a PPV that lost a lot of it's luster after losing a title bout, a great match-up between Jon Fitch and Ricardo Almeida (due to an injury to Almeida), and Karo Parisyan (which, in the long run, won't be such a big loss to the UFC since he was mainly gatekeeper as of late).

Preliminary Card (Non-televised)
* Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos vs. Jason Dent
GS should pull this one out. Last time I saw him was a few seasons ago on TUF and in that season's finale. He seemed to have a greater skill set but Dent has proven to be a tough nut to crack. May be FotN candidate were it not buried on the card.
-- Sotiropoulos by TKO, Rd 3

* Lightweight bout: Caol Uno vs. Fabricio Camoes
Is there any real doubt who wins this?
-- Uno by sub, Rd 2

* Welterweight bout: Brock Larson vs. Brian Foster
Seems more like filler and not a fight that will elevate either fighter unless htey win in SPECTACULAR fashion and get featured on the main card.
-- Larson by KO, Rd 1

Preliminary Card (Spike TV)
* Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt
'Da Spida' is back but having to face a tough, young opponent in Rosholt. This won't be a picnic for either man and I'm leaning towards Grove JUST on experience alone. Wouldn't be surprised to see Jake come out of this with the W, tho.
-- Grove by decision

* Welterweight bout: Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis
Saunders has gotten nastier EVERY TIME he steps in the Octagon but the Irish Hand Grenade is going to be his greatest test to date. I hate to see either of these guys lose but tonight may be a chance for Saunders to prove he needs to be in the discussion for future contenders to the Welterweight title. Should be a war.
-- Saunders by decision

Main Card
* Welterweight bout: Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni
If I were picking with my heart I'd pick Amir all day every day because I hate Baroni THAT MUCH. But he has one last UFC run in him (similar to Frank Trigg). It's hard to say what baggage he's bringing with him. He was 5-5 in the UFC by the time he left in 2005. Re-established himself in Pride with a decent run (4-2) in a year and a half. But he is 3-4 since leaving Pride and 0-3 in televised broadcasts in that run (with EliteXC and Strikeforce). It simply isn't enough to be brought back IMO.
Nevertheless, with that said, usign my head it's hard to actually pick Amir over the NY Bad Ass. Amir hasn't shown much since winning his season of TUF against CB Dolloway. Losing to Jonny Hendricks was a tough loss and one he needs to bounce back from. I'd love to see it happen but If Baroni can clip him early Amir's UFC dreams could be over almost as quickly as they begun.
-- Baroni by TKO, Rd 1

* Light Heavyweight bout: Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Luis Cane is a tough opponent to debut with but I expect Lil Nog to make a splash in his UFC debut! (If he can avoid some of Cane's big strikes early)
-- Lil Nog by sub, Rd 2

* Welterweight bout: Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann
Thsi fight was moved up from the undercard. Gotta admit I could do without this fight on the main card but who am I, right? Thiago is bouncing back from a tough decision loss to Fitch and is facing a debuting Volkmann (fighting out of Minnesota MMA). Octagon experience once again plays a role here as I expect Thiago to take this one. But it won't be easy.
-- Thiago by decision

* Welterweight bout: Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson
This one promises to be another nasty fight with two guys who know how to put on a show and can fight with more emotion than brains at times. Here's another fight where I'd hate to see either one of these guys lose but... I'm going with Koscheck on this one. Rumble's ground game leaves a lot to be desired and if this goes to the ground he'll suffer a little. I suspect Kos will stand and bang with his for at least one full round but will eventually take use his ground game to his advantage.
-- Koscheck by TKO, Rd 3

* Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
It's always hard to pick against a fan favorite like Forrest Griffin but stepping in on short notice to take on Tito may be a bit too much for me. Tito is coming back 100% healthy. No back problems. And he's hungry to re-establish himself in the MMA landscape and, more specifically, get himself in the title hunt once again. Perhaps a win here will set-up a #1 contender shot for the Huntington Beach Bad Boy? We'll see, but he's gotta put on a good show against Forrest. Granted Griffin won't lose as badly as he did to Anderson Silva, but I expect him to lose. (Kills me to say that).
-- Tito by TKO, Rd 2

Strikeforce: Fedor v Rogers (on CBS)

Welcome back fight fans,

This Saturday (November 7th) we have another stacked MMA card presented by CBS on primetime television for our viewing pleasure! This will be CBS' first foray into MMA since the collapse of EliteXC. With the new partnership forged with Strikeforce, the network hopes to continue providing MMA cards on network TV once a quarter. This seems more likely to continue long term since they are now dealing with an MMA promotion that has been around for years. Strikeforce provides CBS with more stability than any other MMA promotion not named 'UFC'.

Without further ado, here are my picks/predictions/rants on Saturday's big night:

Undercard
* Women's bout (145-lb): Marloes Coenen vs. Roxanne Modafferi
* Welterweight bout: Mark Miller vs. Deray Davis
* Middleweight bout: John Kolosci vs. Shamar Bailey
* Middleweight bout: Louis Taylor vs. Nate Moore
* Welterweight bout: Christian Uflacker vs. Jonatas Novaes
* Bantamweight bout: Jeff Curran vs. Dustin Neace
I'd like to see Jeff Curran bounce back after a pretty bad run at the end of this time in WEC. Neace came in overweight in this bout and I hope that doesn't translate to a distinct advantage in the cage b/c Curran is a class act and it would be a shame for him to lose to a "bigger" fighter who can't be professional enough to make weight. It's one of the biggest insults in the fight game to come in overweight IMO and giving Curran 20% of his purse isn't nearly enough compensation. Very frustrating!!

Pick: Curran by decision

Main card
* Heavyweight bout: Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva
It will be interesting to see how Silva bounces back after being suspended for steroids use last year after capturing the (now-defunct) EliteXC Heavyweight championship. Werdum is on the short list of challengers for the heavyweight title in Strikeforce so we could be looking at a future contender for the heavyweight strap with the winner of this fight (the winner of Fedor-Rogers gets the first shot at Overeem).

I think Silva is a pretty skilled fighter but still a little green. He also won't have the same reach advantage he's had in the past with his other opponents. Werdum should be able to impose his will against Silva who IMO seems to be mismatched in this bout.

Pick: Werdum by TKO, Round 2


* Light Heavyweight bout: Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Is it wrong of me to say I don't really care about this fight much? I don't really see Sokoudjou putting up much of a challenge and expect Mousasi to have a short night (just like his Strikeforce debut a few months ago).

Pick: Mousasi by any method he wants but I'll go with a KO, Round 1.


* Middleweight Championship bout: Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller
Lots of bad blood between these guys leading up to this fight. Shields has looked very unimpressive in his last few fights and 'Mayhem' has seemed to let his ego get the best of him when fighting causing him to underachieve in the ring/cage IMO.

Should be an entertaining bout though I give the slight edge to Shields since he's been on the big national stage before. Jason will need to come in with his head right to win this one.

Pick: Shields by unanimous decision

* Heavyweight bout: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers
I'd love to give this to the hungry underdog who is looking to prove himself. And I'd love to default to the old line about how every fighter has a puncher's chance (esp a guy like Rogers who has powerful hands). But I simply cannot pick against Fedor. I don't feel Rogers will have an opportunity to get a clean shot in to rock Fedor and even if he WERE to do that I suspect Fedor will be able to recover quickly enough to take advantage of a rushing Rogers and possibly KO him with a counterstrike. This being said, Rogers best chance of winning may be taking this to a decision. But again, I can't see Fedor allowing this fight to go the full 3 rounds. At some point he will take Rogers to the ground and take control eventually subbing him.

Rogers is a big, strong fighter and has a 35 pound weight advantage going into the fight. Either way, the "Last Emperor" should be able to take "The Grim" down at will. It's just a matter of whether he feels he should do it early or wait til Rogers gasses a little and then slowly dismantle the big man.

Pick: Fedor by Armbar, Round 3

Strikeforce: Fedor V Rogers

Strikeforce: Fedor V Rogers Analysis and Predictions

Strikeforce: Fedor V Rogers - Saturday November 07, 2009 - CBS 9pm EST.
What's up party people! This Saturday's MMA event will be broadcast on CBS at 9pm EST. Yes this is FREE TV! The event comes via the very distant 2nd. place alternative to the UFC. I can live without the flashy, spectacle-like atmosphere and the over dramatic rethoric from Mauro, but I'm all for watching a solid MMA event, specially with Fedor headlining it. For the boxing fanatics out there that are just getting into MMA, it's OK, we forgive you, and you'll see a format that is much more familiar than the UFC. Also, StrikeForce also showcases female talent... a plus in my opinion. The preliminary card is ok, but some of the matches appear to be mismatches, but overall its still very much worth the attention of the fans. The main card is solid and full of fights with the potential of fireworks. Sit back, get your chips and brew (A Riestling and Sushi for me!) and enjoy some good ole' ass whuppins!

Preliminary card

* Women (145 lbs.) Marloes Coenen (16-3) VS Roxanne Modafferi (13-4)
This match was originally slated as a rematch between Coenen and Erin Toughill, but Modaffi fills in for Toughill due to "medical reasons". Modafferi has also defeated Coenen via split decision and is enjoying a 6 fight winning streak, but has not fought for a year. Coenen is very good on the ground but will most likely be outmatched by a much more rounded fighter in Modafferi. Expect Madafferi to keep this standing and to lay-and-pray if taken to the ground. Modafferi eeks out a decision victory again.

* Bantamweight Jeff Curran (29-12-1) VS Dustin Neace (17-13-1)
Curran washed out of WEC and is currently on a 4 fight losing streak, while Neace has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. Neace is a competent grappler who is going against a better grappler... preety simple, Curran enjoys a 2nd Round Submission victory in his hometown. This will hopefully be a stepping stone to revitalize Curran's career.

* Welterweight Mark Miller (9-5) VS Deray Davis (5-1-1)
This shuold be a great way for MIller to showcase his grapplin accumen and get back into the swing of things. Davis is adquate on his feet but usually has issues on the ground. Miller will look for the take down and dominte the position and punish davis. After 14 months away from the cage, Miller should welcome his 1st. round submission win.

* Welterweight Christian Uflacker (1-0) VS Jonatas Novaes (4-2)
Jonatas Novae has not competed for over a year and Uflacker, although lacking in experience, more than makes up in talent. Both these guys are Brazilian Jiujitsu specialists and will no doubt provide a grappling clinic for the fans. I'm going with the newcomer; Uflacker 2nd. round submission.

* Middleweight John Kolosci (10-5) VS Shamar Bailey (9-1)
Shamar Bailey has been on a tear and is currently enjoying a 3 fight winning streak. Kolosci was one of the most liked participants of TUF and has the skills to make the fight interesting. Although I like Kolosci, I see Bailey pushing he pace and outworking Kolosci with strikes and finish with a 2nd round ground and pound victory.

* Middleweight Louis Taylor (4-0) VS Nate Moore (5-1)
Here we have two virtual unknowns. Taylor has a wrestling base and is at home in Chicago. Moore trains at AKA and also Wrestled in college. Both these guys are hungry so this may be the sleeper fight of the prelims. I expect Louis to use his physicality and wear down Moore and finaly get a TKO in the 3rd round.

Main card

* Heavyweight Fabricio Werdum (12-4-1) VS Antonio Silva (13-1)
Werdum finds himself in the unusual circumstance of being the smaller fighter. Silva is a Huge heavyweight from ATT with decent Brazilian JiuJitsu and overated stand-up. His only advantage is his size. Werdum's grappling is light-years ahead of Silva's and his Muay Thai has been improving steadily. Silva needs to utilize good takedown defense and his size to bully Werdum in the clinch. Ultmately, Werdum will find his rhythm and get the takedown. Silva will sucumb to ground and pound or to to submission in the 2nd round. Vai Cavalo may be on his way to a title shot!

* Light Heavyweight Gegard Mousasi (26-2-1) VS Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (7-4-0)
The "Dreamcatcher" Mousasi is the current Light Heavyweight champion after his demolition of Babalu; but this will not be a championship fight. He is an impressive specimen from the famed Red Devil Sports Club. Mousasi possesses brutal striking and can also handle himself on the ground. He is also enjoying a 13 fight winning streak, and before his loss to Gono, was enjoying an 8 fight winning streak. All benefits this Armenian's skill and training with the likes of Fedor. On the other hand we have one of my least liked fighters. Sokoudjou has a hell of a punch and nobody can deny his ferosity and power in his punching. However, his cardio has always been suspect and although he is a Judo black-belt, in my opinion his ground work is mediocre at best. Sokoudjou will come out swinging and find more than his match in Mousasi. Another 1st round victory for Mousasi via KO ot TKO.

* Middleweight Jake Shields (23-4-1) VS Jason Miller (22-6, 1NC)
"Mayham" is definitely one of the most exiting fighters out there, and no one can question his sills on the cage. Unfortunately Jake Shields is a beast on the ground with both wrestling and JiuJitsu skills. Although Miller always keeps a fast pace on his fights, Shields will outclass and outfight Miller and gain the upeer hand in the 3rd round via ground and pound.

* Heavyweight FEDOR EMELIANENKO (30-1, 1NC) VS BRETT ROGERS (10-0)
Finally we have "The Last Emperor", the most dominating heavyweight in the history of the sport. For those of you that are unfamiliar with this unasuming, seemingly out of shape Russian... first shame on you, and second, prepare to be awed. Fedor commands one of the most impressive tool kits in MMA: His striking is defined with relatively quick punching with KO power and the uncanny ability to maintan the impact of his strikes even when backing away, he can go with minimal loss to intensity for the entirety of a fight, but most importantly, his combat Sambo is second to none. He destroys people with his ground and pound and works armbars from the bottom with ease. Yeah.. the total package.
Brett Rogers is a heavy hitting monster that can put anybody to sleep if given the chance. He has been tearing through the heavyweights and dismantelled Andrei Arlovski- easily one of the best strikers in MMA - in the 1st. round of their fight. Both these guys will come out swinging so there will be sparks early on. I expect Fedor to slow the pace down and look for the mat. Fedor has flaws, he just never gives anybody the chance to exploit them. I think Rogers has a great chance to test Fedor's chin and put him away... provided he can get his paws on the Cyborg. Unfortunately for Rogers, Fedor can win this match any number of ways; Rogers only has a puncher's chance. Fedor continues his hegemony on the Heavyweigh division with a 2nd round ground and pound.

UFC 104 Quick Picks

Welcome back fight fans!!

The UFC will be bringing us one of the more stacked cards and more intriguing match-ups than we've seen in some time (rather than throwing big names at us in their main events). These may not be 'flashy' fights but the card has the potential to be one of the most exciting top to bottom.

Without further ado, here are my picks for UFC 104:

Undercard--
* Middleweight bout: Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
This fight should be on the PPV and/or the Spike portion of UFC 104 based on name recognition. However, these two are likely to produce the "Snoozer of the Night" so I don't blame Dana White and Joe Silva for putting this on the undercard. A lot rides on this fight for each of these fighters. Win or lose, the one who puts on the better show has a better chance of sticking with the company and moving up the ranks of the Middleweight division.
My pick: Okami by a long drawn out unanimous decision

* Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons
Nice to see Rivera back in the octagon after his family problems. It'll be an emotional moment and it's tough to predict this one. Submission losses to Dan Miller and Marvin Eastman on his record lead me to suspect his ability to fight on the big stage against quality opponents. Rivera will always be a journeyman but one with above average skill.
My pick: Rivera by decision

* Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan
Al-Hassan won't give up easily but Kingsbury won't be looking to submit "Razor". Kingsbury has been unimpressive after taking a step up in competition.
My pick: Al-Hassan by submission, Round 2

* Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley
My pick: Struve by TKO, Round 2

Televised Card (Spike TV)--
* Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Schafer's no slouch but I like Bader's style. His strong wrestling should be enough to keep "Red" down and eventually he'll finish the job. A good bout to televise on Spike TV.
My pick: Bader TKO (GnP), Round 2

* Heavyweight bout: Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry
My pick: Hardonk TKO, Round 1

Main card (PPV)--
* Catchweight (157 lb) bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer
My pick: Tibau by sub, Round 2

* Catchweight (176 lb) bout: Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
(Yoshida agreed to a catchweight after Johnson weighed-in at 176lbs)
I hate seeing Johnson not make weight for this fight. It would have been the perfect opportunity to continue climbing the ranks of the Welterweight division. Instead we settle for a catchweight bout that Johnson should be able to win. Too bad... he now has everything to lose. He didn't make weight so there is a stain on his reputation and a loss will knock him down the ladder.
My pick: Johnson by TKO, Round 2

* Lightweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
My pick: Fisher by decision

* Heavyweight bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
My pick: Velasquez by decision

* Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto Machida (c) vs. Mauricio Rua
Despite the man-crush my colleague, Jorge, has on Machida, I have consistently picked against him in his last 2 bouts (I even expected his fight with Tito Ortiz to be closer than it was). Now that he's champion I'm tempted to pick him and change my ways. But the one thing that is consistent in all combat sports, be it boxing or MMA, it's the immense difficulty a fighter has in defending his belt for the very first time.

There is a hunger, additional motivation, a level of work ethic, with #1 contenders that allows them to step up their game and perform at a level that is above and beyond anything they've experienced. Once they become champion it's difficult to emulate that drive that won them the championship. I don't think Machida will lose that edge that helped him pick apart Rashad Evans. I think he'll bring it to Shogun and give him fits the entire fight.

I didn't like the way Shogun looked in his loss to Forrest Griffin but he has turned it around since then. Do we chalk that poor performance up to Octagon debut jitters? Is it possible that Rua lost a bit of his swagger. Shogun, arguably, may be the most dangerous striker Machida has ever faced. I don't think Shogun will knock out Machida but he will test Machida's chin.

I don't have any rationale for this pick but I still have my reservations about Machida. Defending the title will be his greatest feat against such a difficult opponent.

My pick: Rua by KO, Round 3