Welcome back fight fans!!
The UFC will be bringing us one of the more stacked cards and more intriguing match-ups than we've seen in some time (rather than throwing big names at us in their main events). These may not be 'flashy' fights but the card has the potential to be one of the most exciting top to bottom.
Without further ado, here are my picks for UFC 104:
Undercard--
* Middleweight bout: Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
This fight should be on the PPV and/or the Spike portion of UFC 104 based on name recognition. However, these two are likely to produce the "Snoozer of the Night" so I don't blame Dana White and Joe Silva for putting this on the undercard. A lot rides on this fight for each of these fighters. Win or lose, the one who puts on the better show has a better chance of sticking with the company and moving up the ranks of the Middleweight division.
My pick: Okami by a long drawn out unanimous decision
* Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons
Nice to see Rivera back in the octagon after his family problems. It'll be an emotional moment and it's tough to predict this one. Submission losses to Dan Miller and Marvin Eastman on his record lead me to suspect his ability to fight on the big stage against quality opponents. Rivera will always be a journeyman but one with above average skill.
My pick: Rivera by decision
* Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan
Al-Hassan won't give up easily but Kingsbury won't be looking to submit "Razor". Kingsbury has been unimpressive after taking a step up in competition.
My pick: Al-Hassan by submission, Round 2
* Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley
My pick: Struve by TKO, Round 2
Televised Card (Spike TV)--
* Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Schafer's no slouch but I like Bader's style. His strong wrestling should be enough to keep "Red" down and eventually he'll finish the job. A good bout to televise on Spike TV.
My pick: Bader TKO (GnP), Round 2
* Heavyweight bout: Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry
My pick: Hardonk TKO, Round 1
Main card (PPV)--
* Catchweight (157 lb) bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer
My pick: Tibau by sub, Round 2
* Catchweight (176 lb) bout: Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
(Yoshida agreed to a catchweight after Johnson weighed-in at 176lbs)
I hate seeing Johnson not make weight for this fight. It would have been the perfect opportunity to continue climbing the ranks of the Welterweight division. Instead we settle for a catchweight bout that Johnson should be able to win. Too bad... he now has everything to lose. He didn't make weight so there is a stain on his reputation and a loss will knock him down the ladder.
My pick: Johnson by TKO, Round 2
* Lightweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
My pick: Fisher by decision
* Heavyweight bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
My pick: Velasquez by decision
* Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto Machida (c) vs. Mauricio Rua
Despite the man-crush my colleague, Jorge, has on Machida, I have consistently picked against him in his last 2 bouts (I even expected his fight with Tito Ortiz to be closer than it was). Now that he's champion I'm tempted to pick him and change my ways. But the one thing that is consistent in all combat sports, be it boxing or MMA, it's the immense difficulty a fighter has in defending his belt for the very first time.
There is a hunger, additional motivation, a level of work ethic, with #1 contenders that allows them to step up their game and perform at a level that is above and beyond anything they've experienced. Once they become champion it's difficult to emulate that drive that won them the championship. I don't think Machida will lose that edge that helped him pick apart Rashad Evans. I think he'll bring it to Shogun and give him fits the entire fight.
I didn't like the way Shogun looked in his loss to Forrest Griffin but he has turned it around since then. Do we chalk that poor performance up to Octagon debut jitters? Is it possible that Rua lost a bit of his swagger. Shogun, arguably, may be the most dangerous striker Machida has ever faced. I don't think Shogun will knock out Machida but he will test Machida's chin.
I don't have any rationale for this pick but I still have my reservations about Machida. Defending the title will be his greatest feat against such a difficult opponent.
My pick: Rua by KO, Round 3
Saturday, October 24, 2009
UFC 104 Analysis and Predictions
UFC 104 - Saturday October 24, 2009
What's up party people! This is going to be a very exiting card with some very good fights even in the prelims. On a side note, 3 fighters missed their weight making 2 matches go to a catch weight. I'm exited to see Yushin Okami get into the mix in the middlewight division. I also want to gauge Big Bad Bader's evolution since his TUF victory. This main card is amazing in my opinion; solid, dynamic fighters that are sure to keep the excitement level at a maximum. Then there is of course, The Dragon, The Master, Sensei... Lyoto Machida. I've followed his career and was a big fan of his before people knew him here in the states. I told people "this guy is Money... no question". Many doubted me and questioned my outlook as biased because I'm also a Shotokan Karateka with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (and Judo... yeah, I threw that in!). I've always said that traditional Karate was a great foundation style for MMA. If you don't beleive me maybe you've heard of George St. Pierre (Kyokushin Kai), Bas Rutten (Kyokushin Kai), Frank Mir (Isshin Ryu), Takanori Gomi (Mushinjuku) and Chuck Liddell (Kajukenbo) just to name a few. Don't get me wrong, I like Mauricio Rua, and I think if anybody can pose a threat to Machida, it is definitely Shogun. Ok, enough of my yapping... on to the fights! Oss.
Preliminary card
* Heavyweight Stefan Struve (17-3) vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)
Struve is a 3-1 underdog against powerhouse wrestler Gromley even with his 6'11" frame, impressive submissions skills and kickboxing prowess. Sure, Gromley is hot on a 6 fight winning streak and Struve lost to Dos Santos on his debut fight, but I'm going against the grain and say that Struve is going to keep Gromley at bay fighting from the outside and get a 3rd Round submission or TKO.
* Light Heavyweight Kyle Kingsbury (7-2) vs. Razak Al-Hassan (6-1)
Here we have 2 fighters that have yet to win a match in the UFC. Kingsbury didn't show much in TUF 8 and Al-Hassan got his elbow dislocated in his debut. Kingsbury is a striker with heavy hands and although Al-Hassan is billed as a submission fighter, he looked like a fish out of water on the ground against Cantwell. I say Al-Hassan's Tae Kwon Do based striking will be different enough to overwhelm Kingsbury and he'll win via TKO in round 2. I say this reluctantly as Kingsbury can win quite easily and... I'll just say it "I have very little faith in TKD"... there it's said.
* Middleweight Jorge Rivera (16-7) vs. Rob Kimmons (22-4)
Jorge Rivera is an experienced Muay Thai striker with solid power, unfortunately he is on his way out. He always does well in smaller fights but never really manages to get anything going against top level opponents. Rob Kimmons is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter with power and youth. I think Kimmons will ease Rivera's transition to retirement. Look for a 2nd Round submission.
* Middleweight Yushin Okami (23-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (23-10-1)
As a NCAA All-American and Olympic alternate in Greco, Chael Sonnen is a talented wrestler. Unfortunately for him, Okami is a bigger and craftier wrestler with a comparatively better stand-up game. Okami tends to start slowly but he will pressure Sonnen with strikes and work the clinch with strikes and pin him against the fence imposing his size. Okami pulls out a victory via sub or TKO in the 3rd.
Spike TV card
* Heavyweight Antoni Hardonk (8-5) vs. Patrick Barry (4-1)
This is should be a slugfest between two big kick boxers. Hardonk is a much bigger heavyweight and should use his reach to execute an outside game and work the legs and then go for the KO. Barry trains with Rick Rufus and is small for a heavyweight; he'll have to work to get inside overwhelm Hardonk. IF this fight goes to the ground it will be a slumber-fest as neither fighter is very proficient on the mat. I think Hardonk has the edge and win the fight with a 2nd round KO.
* Light Heavyweight Ryan Bader (9-0) vs. Eric Schafer (11-3-2)
Bader is a big powerful wrestler with a very decent stand-up game training at Arizona Combat Sports. He's shown great progress since his TUF 8 victory and should dictate the pace of the fight. Shaffer is a solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter that also trains kick boxing with Rick Rufus. Although Bader is a beast on the ground, he may leave an opening for a submission from shaffer. I think Bader has the edge on the feet and will actually win it stading. 3rd Round TKO, or even KO.
Main card
* Catchweight (176 lb) Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3)
This a fight between two great fighters. Yoshida is an amazing Judoka and Rumble is a wrestler with good stand-up. Johnson has always had trouble making the huge weight cut from 200 lbs. but I'm surprised he missed the mark. Johnson will use his strength and athleticism, not to mention his reach advantage to overwhelm Yoshida and get his victory in the 2nd round via TKO or KO.
* Catchweight (157 lb) Gleison Tibau (19-6) vs. Josh Neer (25-8-1)
neither fighter made weight, and both being former welterweights, there is no real size advantage. Tibau is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace with adequate stand-up from ATT. Neer is crafty veteran and a product of Miletich. Both are dangerous on the mat and will probably keep it standing to cancel out the grappling advantage. I think Tibau has a slight edge and he can eke out a decision.
* Lightweight Joe Stevenson (30-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (23-4)
This is a classic battle of styles. Stevenson is a wrestler with decent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (I still say decent even with his recent promotion to Black Belt) and a monster top game and ground and pound. Fisher is a Miletich fighter with great stand-up and lots of heart. Fisher will try to keep it on the feet while he creates angles and punishes Stevenson. Joe "Daddy" should forget about engaging and work for the take down and maybe work his infamous guillotine. Fisher is well rounded but has shown a weak defense against take downs so Stevenson, if he sticks to being a wrestler, should submit Fisher in the 2nd. round.
* Heavyweight Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)
Another battle of styles, but now supersized. Rothwell is a decorated Miletich striker with a lot of experience and big power in his hands. Velazques is crushing the division with his impressive wrestling and devastating power. Cain demonstrated that he can take a hit by eating Kongo's strikes right on the button and still taking the victory. Like Kongo, Rothwell is a powerful striker with poor take down defense. This fight should be no different except that Cain's trainers at AKA should have improved his stand-up thus making this a more one sided fight. Velazquez get's his 7th win via ground and pound in the 3rd stanza.
* Light Heavyweight Championship *
Lyoto "the Dragon " Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3)
Wow... where to begin. Rua is an amazing fighter: a product of chute boxe that dominated PRIDE back in the day. He has a very aggressive muay thai style and solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Machida uses classic Shotokan karate footwork to create angles and opportunities to punish his opponents, and just as quickly gets out of the way. He is also an great grappler with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo (sound familiar!). He cleaved a path through the division and actually improved his illusive style with more aggression culminating in the dismantlement of "Sugar" Rashad Evan and winning the belt. So who can take Machida down? not many people, but Rua has the skill set for the job, hence his undeserved title shot. Rua has had a disappointing start in the UFC losing to Forrest Griffin, barely defeating Mark Coleman and finally knocking out a much diminished Chuck Liddell. But, if one follows this progression this could be the fight that brings the Shogun of old to the octagon. I've always said that the only way to have a shot at Machida is to pressure him with aggression and don't let him settle and find his distance and rhythm. This type of fight is tailor made for Rua and his "always forward" striking. Rua has to come with punches, kicks, knees and minimize Machida's footwork. Like I said, this will give Shogun "a shot", but I think the faster Machida will use his impeccable footwork and laser guided punching to frustrate and ultimately string together a devastating combo on Rua. The only other way for Rua to gain an advantage is to take Machida to the ground and impose his power to pin him down and cause damage. Here again, I think Machida will use his take down defense. And even if it goes to the ground, Machida will have enough to either submit, or at least keep safe from Rua's onslaught. I admit that I am biased, but my prediction is not. Machida, TKO or KO 3rd round. Yeah Rogan, this is he Machida era!
What's up party people! This is going to be a very exiting card with some very good fights even in the prelims. On a side note, 3 fighters missed their weight making 2 matches go to a catch weight. I'm exited to see Yushin Okami get into the mix in the middlewight division. I also want to gauge Big Bad Bader's evolution since his TUF victory. This main card is amazing in my opinion; solid, dynamic fighters that are sure to keep the excitement level at a maximum. Then there is of course, The Dragon, The Master, Sensei... Lyoto Machida. I've followed his career and was a big fan of his before people knew him here in the states. I told people "this guy is Money... no question". Many doubted me and questioned my outlook as biased because I'm also a Shotokan Karateka with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (and Judo... yeah, I threw that in!). I've always said that traditional Karate was a great foundation style for MMA. If you don't beleive me maybe you've heard of George St. Pierre (Kyokushin Kai), Bas Rutten (Kyokushin Kai), Frank Mir (Isshin Ryu), Takanori Gomi (Mushinjuku) and Chuck Liddell (Kajukenbo) just to name a few. Don't get me wrong, I like Mauricio Rua, and I think if anybody can pose a threat to Machida, it is definitely Shogun. Ok, enough of my yapping... on to the fights! Oss.
Preliminary card
* Heavyweight Stefan Struve (17-3) vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)
Struve is a 3-1 underdog against powerhouse wrestler Gromley even with his 6'11" frame, impressive submissions skills and kickboxing prowess. Sure, Gromley is hot on a 6 fight winning streak and Struve lost to Dos Santos on his debut fight, but I'm going against the grain and say that Struve is going to keep Gromley at bay fighting from the outside and get a 3rd Round submission or TKO.
* Light Heavyweight Kyle Kingsbury (7-2) vs. Razak Al-Hassan (6-1)
Here we have 2 fighters that have yet to win a match in the UFC. Kingsbury didn't show much in TUF 8 and Al-Hassan got his elbow dislocated in his debut. Kingsbury is a striker with heavy hands and although Al-Hassan is billed as a submission fighter, he looked like a fish out of water on the ground against Cantwell. I say Al-Hassan's Tae Kwon Do based striking will be different enough to overwhelm Kingsbury and he'll win via TKO in round 2. I say this reluctantly as Kingsbury can win quite easily and... I'll just say it "I have very little faith in TKD"... there it's said.
* Middleweight Jorge Rivera (16-7) vs. Rob Kimmons (22-4)
Jorge Rivera is an experienced Muay Thai striker with solid power, unfortunately he is on his way out. He always does well in smaller fights but never really manages to get anything going against top level opponents. Rob Kimmons is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter with power and youth. I think Kimmons will ease Rivera's transition to retirement. Look for a 2nd Round submission.
* Middleweight Yushin Okami (23-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (23-10-1)
As a NCAA All-American and Olympic alternate in Greco, Chael Sonnen is a talented wrestler. Unfortunately for him, Okami is a bigger and craftier wrestler with a comparatively better stand-up game. Okami tends to start slowly but he will pressure Sonnen with strikes and work the clinch with strikes and pin him against the fence imposing his size. Okami pulls out a victory via sub or TKO in the 3rd.
Spike TV card
* Heavyweight Antoni Hardonk (8-5) vs. Patrick Barry (4-1)
This is should be a slugfest between two big kick boxers. Hardonk is a much bigger heavyweight and should use his reach to execute an outside game and work the legs and then go for the KO. Barry trains with Rick Rufus and is small for a heavyweight; he'll have to work to get inside overwhelm Hardonk. IF this fight goes to the ground it will be a slumber-fest as neither fighter is very proficient on the mat. I think Hardonk has the edge and win the fight with a 2nd round KO.
* Light Heavyweight Ryan Bader (9-0) vs. Eric Schafer (11-3-2)
Bader is a big powerful wrestler with a very decent stand-up game training at Arizona Combat Sports. He's shown great progress since his TUF 8 victory and should dictate the pace of the fight. Shaffer is a solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter that also trains kick boxing with Rick Rufus. Although Bader is a beast on the ground, he may leave an opening for a submission from shaffer. I think Bader has the edge on the feet and will actually win it stading. 3rd Round TKO, or even KO.
Main card
* Catchweight (176 lb) Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3)
This a fight between two great fighters. Yoshida is an amazing Judoka and Rumble is a wrestler with good stand-up. Johnson has always had trouble making the huge weight cut from 200 lbs. but I'm surprised he missed the mark. Johnson will use his strength and athleticism, not to mention his reach advantage to overwhelm Yoshida and get his victory in the 2nd round via TKO or KO.
* Catchweight (157 lb) Gleison Tibau (19-6) vs. Josh Neer (25-8-1)
neither fighter made weight, and both being former welterweights, there is no real size advantage. Tibau is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace with adequate stand-up from ATT. Neer is crafty veteran and a product of Miletich. Both are dangerous on the mat and will probably keep it standing to cancel out the grappling advantage. I think Tibau has a slight edge and he can eke out a decision.
* Lightweight Joe Stevenson (30-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (23-4)
This is a classic battle of styles. Stevenson is a wrestler with decent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (I still say decent even with his recent promotion to Black Belt) and a monster top game and ground and pound. Fisher is a Miletich fighter with great stand-up and lots of heart. Fisher will try to keep it on the feet while he creates angles and punishes Stevenson. Joe "Daddy" should forget about engaging and work for the take down and maybe work his infamous guillotine. Fisher is well rounded but has shown a weak defense against take downs so Stevenson, if he sticks to being a wrestler, should submit Fisher in the 2nd. round.
* Heavyweight Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)
Another battle of styles, but now supersized. Rothwell is a decorated Miletich striker with a lot of experience and big power in his hands. Velazques is crushing the division with his impressive wrestling and devastating power. Cain demonstrated that he can take a hit by eating Kongo's strikes right on the button and still taking the victory. Like Kongo, Rothwell is a powerful striker with poor take down defense. This fight should be no different except that Cain's trainers at AKA should have improved his stand-up thus making this a more one sided fight. Velazquez get's his 7th win via ground and pound in the 3rd stanza.
* Light Heavyweight Championship *
Lyoto "the Dragon " Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3)
Wow... where to begin. Rua is an amazing fighter: a product of chute boxe that dominated PRIDE back in the day. He has a very aggressive muay thai style and solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Machida uses classic Shotokan karate footwork to create angles and opportunities to punish his opponents, and just as quickly gets out of the way. He is also an great grappler with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo (sound familiar!). He cleaved a path through the division and actually improved his illusive style with more aggression culminating in the dismantlement of "Sugar" Rashad Evan and winning the belt. So who can take Machida down? not many people, but Rua has the skill set for the job, hence his undeserved title shot. Rua has had a disappointing start in the UFC losing to Forrest Griffin, barely defeating Mark Coleman and finally knocking out a much diminished Chuck Liddell. But, if one follows this progression this could be the fight that brings the Shogun of old to the octagon. I've always said that the only way to have a shot at Machida is to pressure him with aggression and don't let him settle and find his distance and rhythm. This type of fight is tailor made for Rua and his "always forward" striking. Rua has to come with punches, kicks, knees and minimize Machida's footwork. Like I said, this will give Shogun "a shot", but I think the faster Machida will use his impeccable footwork and laser guided punching to frustrate and ultimately string together a devastating combo on Rua. The only other way for Rua to gain an advantage is to take Machida to the ground and impose his power to pin him down and cause damage. Here again, I think Machida will use his take down defense. And even if it goes to the ground, Machida will have enough to either submit, or at least keep safe from Rua's onslaught. I admit that I am biased, but my prediction is not. Machida, TKO or KO 3rd round. Yeah Rogan, this is he Machida era!
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