Saturday, October 24, 2009

UFC 104 Analysis and Predictions

UFC 104 - Saturday October 24, 2009
What's up party people! This is going to be a very exiting card with some very good fights even in the prelims. On a side note, 3 fighters missed their weight making 2 matches go to a catch weight. I'm exited to see Yushin Okami get into the mix in the middlewight division. I also want to gauge Big Bad Bader's evolution since his TUF victory. This main card is amazing in my opinion; solid, dynamic fighters that are sure to keep the excitement level at a maximum. Then there is of course, The Dragon, The Master, Sensei... Lyoto Machida. I've followed his career and was a big fan of his before people knew him here in the states. I told people "this guy is Money... no question". Many doubted me and questioned my outlook as biased because I'm also a Shotokan Karateka with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (and Judo... yeah, I threw that in!). I've always said that traditional Karate was a great foundation style for MMA. If you don't beleive me maybe you've heard of George St. Pierre (Kyokushin Kai), Bas Rutten (Kyokushin Kai), Frank Mir (Isshin Ryu), Takanori Gomi (Mushinjuku) and Chuck Liddell (Kajukenbo) just to name a few. Don't get me wrong, I like Mauricio Rua, and I think if anybody can pose a threat to Machida, it is definitely Shogun. Ok, enough of my yapping... on to the fights! Oss.


Preliminary card

* Heavyweight Stefan Struve (17-3) vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)
Struve is a 3-1 underdog against powerhouse wrestler Gromley even with his 6'11" frame, impressive submissions skills and kickboxing prowess. Sure, Gromley is hot on a 6 fight winning streak and Struve lost to Dos Santos on his debut fight, but I'm going against the grain and say that Struve is going to keep Gromley at bay fighting from the outside and get a 3rd Round submission or TKO.

* Light Heavyweight Kyle Kingsbury (7-2) vs. Razak Al-Hassan (6-1)
Here we have 2 fighters that have yet to win a match in the UFC. Kingsbury didn't show much in TUF 8 and Al-Hassan got his elbow dislocated in his debut. Kingsbury is a striker with heavy hands and although Al-Hassan is billed as a submission fighter, he looked like a fish out of water on the ground against Cantwell. I say Al-Hassan's Tae Kwon Do based striking will be different enough to overwhelm Kingsbury and he'll win via TKO in round 2. I say this reluctantly as Kingsbury can win quite easily and... I'll just say it "I have very little faith in TKD"... there it's said.

* Middleweight Jorge Rivera (16-7) vs. Rob Kimmons (22-4)

Jorge Rivera is an experienced Muay Thai striker with solid power, unfortunately he is on his way out. He always does well in smaller fights but never really manages to get anything going against top level opponents. Rob Kimmons is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter with power and youth. I think Kimmons will ease Rivera's transition to retirement. Look for a 2nd Round submission.

* Middleweight Yushin Okami (23-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (23-10-1)
As a NCAA All-American and Olympic alternate in Greco, Chael Sonnen is a talented wrestler. Unfortunately for him, Okami is a bigger and craftier wrestler with a comparatively better stand-up game. Okami tends to start slowly but he will pressure Sonnen with strikes and work the clinch with strikes and pin him against the fence imposing his size. Okami pulls out a victory via sub or TKO in the 3rd.

Spike TV card

* Heavyweight Antoni Hardonk (8-5) vs. Patrick Barry (4-1)
This is should be a slugfest between two big kick boxers. Hardonk is a much bigger heavyweight and should use his reach to execute an outside game and work the legs and then go for the KO. Barry trains with Rick Rufus and is small for a heavyweight; he'll have to work to get inside overwhelm Hardonk. IF this fight goes to the ground it will be a slumber-fest as neither fighter is very proficient on the mat. I think Hardonk has the edge and win the fight with a 2nd round KO.

* Light Heavyweight Ryan Bader (9-0) vs. Eric Schafer (11-3-2)

Bader is a big powerful wrestler with a very decent stand-up game training at Arizona Combat Sports. He's shown great progress since his TUF 8 victory and should dictate the pace of the fight. Shaffer is a solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter that also trains kick boxing with Rick Rufus. Although Bader is a beast on the ground, he may leave an opening for a submission from shaffer. I think Bader has the edge on the feet and will actually win it stading. 3rd Round TKO, or even KO.

Main card

* Catchweight (176 lb) Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3)
This a fight between two great fighters. Yoshida is an amazing Judoka and Rumble is a wrestler with good stand-up. Johnson has always had trouble making the huge weight cut from 200 lbs. but I'm surprised he missed the mark. Johnson will use his strength and athleticism, not to mention his reach advantage to overwhelm Yoshida and get his victory in the 2nd round via TKO or KO.

* Catchweight (157 lb) Gleison Tibau (19-6) vs. Josh Neer (25-8-1)

neither fighter made weight, and both being former welterweights, there is no real size advantage. Tibau is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace with adequate stand-up from ATT. Neer is crafty veteran and a product of Miletich. Both are dangerous on the mat and will probably keep it standing to cancel out the grappling advantage. I think Tibau has a slight edge and he can eke out a decision.

* Lightweight Joe Stevenson (30-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (23-4)

This is a classic battle of styles. Stevenson is a wrestler with decent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (I still say decent even with his recent promotion to Black Belt) and a monster top game and ground and pound. Fisher is a Miletich fighter with great stand-up and lots of heart. Fisher will try to keep it on the feet while he creates angles and punishes Stevenson. Joe "Daddy" should forget about engaging and work for the take down and maybe work his infamous guillotine. Fisher is well rounded but has shown a weak defense against take downs so Stevenson, if he sticks to being a wrestler, should submit Fisher in the 2nd. round.

* Heavyweight Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)
Another battle of styles, but now supersized. Rothwell is a decorated Miletich striker with a lot of experience and big power in his hands. Velazques is crushing the division with his impressive wrestling and devastating power. Cain demonstrated that he can take a hit by eating Kongo's strikes right on the button and still taking the victory. Like Kongo, Rothwell is a powerful striker with poor take down defense. This fight should be no different except that Cain's trainers at AKA should have improved his stand-up thus making this a more one sided fight. Velazquez get's his 7th win via ground and pound in the 3rd stanza.

* Light Heavyweight Championship *
Lyoto "the Dragon " Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3)
Wow... where to begin. Rua is an amazing fighter: a product of chute boxe that dominated PRIDE back in the day. He has a very aggressive muay thai style and solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Machida uses classic Shotokan karate footwork to create angles and opportunities to punish his opponents, and just as quickly gets out of the way. He is also an great grappler with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo (sound familiar!). He cleaved a path through the division and actually improved his illusive style with more aggression culminating in the dismantlement of "Sugar" Rashad Evan and winning the belt. So who can take Machida down? not many people, but Rua has the skill set for the job, hence his undeserved title shot. Rua has had a disappointing start in the UFC losing to Forrest Griffin, barely defeating Mark Coleman and finally knocking out a much diminished Chuck Liddell. But, if one follows this progression this could be the fight that brings the Shogun of old to the octagon. I've always said that the only way to have a shot at Machida is to pressure him with aggression and don't let him settle and find his distance and rhythm. This type of fight is tailor made for Rua and his "always forward" striking. Rua has to come with punches, kicks, knees and minimize Machida's footwork. Like I said, this will give Shogun "a shot", but I think the faster Machida will use his impeccable footwork and laser guided punching to frustrate and ultimately string together a devastating combo on Rua. The only other way for Rua to gain an advantage is to take Machida to the ground and impose his power to pin him down and cause damage. Here again, I think Machida will use his take down defense. And even if it goes to the ground, Machida will have enough to either submit, or at least keep safe from Rua's onslaught. I admit that I am biased, but my prediction is not. Machida, TKO or KO 3rd round. Yeah Rogan, this is he Machida era!

Saturday, September 19, 2009

UFC 103 Quick Picks

There may not be any titles on the line tonight. What we can expect is a shuffling of the rankings in many divisions (esp. welterweight and lightweight) which will shape the list of contenders for each weight class' championships.

Emerson v Dos Anjos (Lightweight - 155 lb)
[Dos Anjos via submission - Round 1]

Matyushenko v Pokrajac (Light Heavyweight - 205)
[V-Mat via TKO - Round 3]

Marshall v Brilz (Light Heavyweight - 205)
[Marshall via sub - Round 3]

Story v Foster (Welterweight - 170)
[?]

Oliveira v Lentz (Lightweight - 155 lb)
Giving the edge to Minnesota MMA's own Lentz
[Lentz via decision]

Jim Miller v Lopez (Lightweight - 155 lb)
[Miller via decision]

McFedries v Drwal (Middleweight - 185)
[McFedries via KO - Round 2]

Escudero v Cole Miller (Lightweight - 155 lb)
[Escudero via sub - Round 1]

Griffin v Franca (Lightweight - 155 lb)
Should be an exciting fight. Fight of the Night contender here.
I say Griffin by decision
[Griffin via decision]

Koscheck v Trigg (Welterweight - 170)
I'm rooting for Trigg but Koscheck should win this by decision. Kos will have his hands full and will lose if he gets sloppy or cocky.
[Koscheck via decision]

Kampmann v Daley (Welterweight - 170)
[?]

CroCop v Dos Santos (Heavyweight - 265)
I question CroCop's motivation here. Dos Santos is hungry and needs a big win on his resume, CroCop will do.
[Dos Santos via sub - Round 2]

Franklin v Belfort (A "catch weight" bout at 195)
Belfort needs to apply pressure on Franklin in the first round and if he can rock Ace at least once, Belfort should be able to finish the fight in the 2nd via T/KO. If he's tentative and doesn't challenge Ace, then Franklin can pull off the decision once he's comfortable and can dictate the pace of the fight.
[Belfort via T/KO - Round 2]

UFC 103 Analysis and Predictions

UFC 103 - Saturday September 19, 2009
Undercard Analysis and predictions

Lightweight bout: Efrain Escudero (11-0) vs. Cole Miller (15-3) -Miller 3rd rd. Submission

Middleweight bout: Drew McFedries (8-5) vs. Tomasz Drwal (16-2) – Drwal KO 2nd rd.

Lightweight bout: Jim Miller (14-2) vs. Steve Lopez (12-1) - Miller Decision

Lightweight bout: Rafaello Oliveira (9-1) vs. Nik Lentz (16-3-1) - Lentz 2nd rd. TKO punches

Welterweight bout: Rick Story (7-3) vs. Brian Foster (12-3) – Foster Decision

Light Heavyweight bout: Eliot Marshall (7-3) vs. Jason Brilz (17-1-1) – Brilz Decision

Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko (22-4) vs. Igor Pokrajac (21-5) - Matyushenko Decision

Lightweight bout: Rob Emerson (9-7, 1NC) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (11-4) – dos Anjos 1st rd. TKO

Main Card Analysis and predictions



Catchweight (195 lb) bout: Rich Franklin (25-4, 1NC) vs. Vitor Belfort (18-8) - Belfort 2nd rd. KO Punches

Heavyweight bout: Mirko Filipović (25-6-2, 1NC) vs. Junior dos Santos (8-1) - Filipović 2nd rd. KO Headkick

Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann (15-2) vs. Paul Daley (21-8-2) - Kampmann 2ndrd Submission

Welterweight bout: Josh Koscheck (12-4) vs. Frank Trigg (19-6) - Koscheck Decision

Catchweight (159 lb) bout: Tyson Griffin (13-2) vs. Hermes Franca (19-7) - Griffin Decision


Enjoy UFC 103 and "Keep phucking that chicken"!

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Alan's Quick Picks for UFC 102

Hey fight fans,

Sorry for the silence the past couple of weeks. It's been a busy time for us on this end. If you haven't checked out Jorge's picks for UFC 102 (this Saturday: UFC 102 - Couture v Nogueira), check them out here.

Here are my picks:

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Main card:
- Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
This is a match we would have loved to see a few years ago. Though a little less significant now, it's still going to be a fun main event to watch. Hard for me to imagine Couture finishing off "Big Nog" in 3 rounds. Also, Nogueira seemed to have lost a step in his previous two bouts. I give the decision victory to "The Natural"

- Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
Jardine is an enigma. Some fights he is able to come out with his unorthodox striking and befuddle opponents. Other times he looks completely outmatched and outclassed (see: v. Houston Alexander, v. Vanderlei Silva). Thiago Silva on the other hand has been the model of consistency who happened to run into the buzzsaw known as Lyoto Machida. Can't see Silva giving up much to Jardine. Yet at the same time I can imagine a scenario where Jardine may frustrate Silva to the point where he makes one little mistake and gets caught.

I may do better by flipping a coin but I'm going with my brain rather than my gut and saying Silva by TKO in the 2nd.

- Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia
I am VERY excited about this match-up! Presumably, the winner of this contest will be the next challenger to the Middleweight champion whether it be Anderson Silva or Dan Henderson (rumored for UFC 105). This is a HUGE step up in competition for Maia and I personally liked what I've seen from him and think he could take it to Marquardt.

Marquardt has done a decent job of working his way back into title contention but my bias will kick in here and I'd like to see someone new step up to try and take the middleweight championship. Nate "The Great" will always be in the upper echelon of the division but whether he is ready to be champion could be revealed in this fight.

I'm calling Maia by mild upset with a sub in the 1st.

- Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Vera cannot afford to be lazy against a game opponent in Soszynski. Soszynski also cannot expect to pull off subs the way he has in many of his UFC bouts recently. Also, when Krzysztof has fought anyone that would qualify as a "step up" in competition, he has fallen short. I suspect that someone as talented and road-tested as Vera will give him fits. I give the edge to Vera and call it by TKO in the 1st round.

- Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt
Leben is back in action almost a year after his loss to Bisping in the UK at UFC 89. He had tested positive for steroids after that bout. It's hard for the casual fan to determine what kind of shape Leben will be in or even how his training has changed in this past year.

Rosholt is a dynamic wrestler who looked pretty good in his last bout in the WEC (despite getting beaten in the standup) vs Nissen Osterneck and looked very pedestrian against Dan Miller in his UFC debut back in February.

With both men looking to comeback from a tough loss (and presumably to avoid the dreaded roster cuts that may follow this bout for the loser), I expect Leben to step up and take control of this fight with constantly pushing the pace and being the aggressor he's been been in the past. He may be taken down by Rosholt but he is no slouch on the ground and his superior striking should be the edge needed to pull out the victory over Rosholt (TKO: 3rd round)

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Prelims:
- Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer
Like Jorge said, Gonzaga by any method he wants! lol... I'm calling Gonzaga via submission in the 2nd.

- Aaron Simpson vs. Ed Herman
Herman via armbar in round 1

- Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow
Russow by guillotine round 2

- Tim Hague vs. Todd Duffee
My regular anti-ATT pick: Tim Hague by striking (b/c ATT guys can't take a punch)

- Nick Catone vs. Mark Munoz
Catone by TKO Round 2 (Munoz needs to be more selective about how aggressive he is in the cage)

- Marcus Aurelio vs. Evan Dunham
Dunham by decision - possibly FotN (Aurelio is tougher than the average ATT guy but between Xtreme Couture and ATT I'll go with Couture every time)

Friday, August 28, 2009

UFC 102 analysis and Predictions

UFC 102 - Saturday August 29, 2009
Undercard Analysis and predictions


Marcus Aurelio (18-7) v Evan Dunham (8-0) - Aurelio, 2nd rd. submission
Nick Catone (7-1) v Mark Munoz (5-1) - Catone, Decision
Tim Hague (10-1) v Todd Duffee (4-0) - Hague, 3rd. rd. g&pTKO
Justin McCully (9-4-2) v Mike Russow (11-1, 1 NC) - Russow, 3rd. rd. Submission or TKO
Ed Herman (15-7) v Aaron Simpson (5-0) - Simpson, Decision
Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4) v Chris Tuchscherer (17-1, 1 NC) - Gonzaga, anything he wants, 1st, maybe 2nd. rd.

Main Card Analysis and predictions


Brandon Vera (10-3) v Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1) - Vera, 2nd. rd. TKO or Submission
Nate Marquardt (31-8-2) v Demian Maia (11-1) - Marquart, 3rd. rd. KO or g&pTKO
Chris Leben (18-6) v Jake Rosholt (5-1) - Leben, 3rd. rd. TKO, maybe Decision
Keith Jardine (14-5-1) v Thiago Silva (13-1) - Silva, 2nd. rd. KO or TKO

MAIN EVENT Analysis and predictions



Randy Couture (16-9) v Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1) - Couture, Decision

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Our Predictions for Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg

Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg
Saturday, August 15, 2009

Main Card-
1) Mike Kyle v Fabricio Werdum
Alan G: Werdum
(can't see him losing this one to Kyle and he's hungry for his title shot)
Jorge A: Werdum
(better BJJ and has gotten a lot better in kickboxing from training with Cro-Cop)
Miko A: TBD

2) Jay Hieron v Jesse Taylor
Alan G: Taylor
(Seems like Taylor will have the strength advantage thus canceling out the wrestling aspect of the bout. I like the the upset here)
Jorge A: Heiron
(Awesome wrestling, did well in IFL and he's one of Couture's main trainers in Las Vegas)
Miko A: TBD

3) Gilbert Melendez v Hitsuhiro Ishida
Alan G: Melendez
(and hopefully to take on Thomson before the year's end)
Jorge A: Ishida
(I'm torn on this one but I'll go with Ishida)
Miko A: TBD

4) Renato 'Babalu' Sobral v Gegard Mousasi
Alan G: Mousasi
(Mousasi is a beast and Babalu "won" the belt with a doctor stoppage on a nasty elbow to Bobby Southworth last year. Another upset IMO)
Jorge A: Sobral
(Better in the ground and standing. I expect takedown and g-n-p)
Miko A: TBD

5) Gina Carano v Cristiane 'Cyborg' Santos
Alan G: Carano
(Hard to pick against Cyborg but conditioning may be the key here and I trust Carano's training at Xtreme Couture over Cyborg's at Chute Boxe)
Jorge A: Carano
(Both great stand up fighters. Santos' only loss came via submission which is not Gina's strength. I think Gina needs to keep it technical and not brawl with the more aggressive Santos. She needs to use her take down defence and maintain the center of the ring. Santos on the other hand has to pressure Gina and turn it into a brawl, and work for the takedown. Santos has to watch for the counter punching and possible leg kicks. This may be a biased and perhaps an ill fated prediction but the first women's champ should be a woman, so Gina FTW)
Miko A: TBD

Friday, August 14, 2009

Carano v Cyborg - A Female Perspective

We at NYC MMA Fans are proud to bring to you some insight from our supporter and good friend, Miko Abreu.

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"Japanese martial arts has been a part of my life in some way or another for as long as I can remember. It is a part of my heritage and recreation. With a life-long love of martial arts in general and an ever increasing appreciation for its mental and physical discipline, I am excited about the upcoming women’s mixed martial arts match on Saturday.

On August 15th, at Strikeforce, Gina “Conviction” Carano faces off against Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos for the women’s 145 lb MMA championship. This is the first-ever women’s match by a major US promoter with Carano (7-0), specializing in Muay Thai and boxing and Santos (7-1), specializing in Muay Thai and BJJ.

MMA fans have shown much anticipation for this match up as it is the probably the biggest fight in women’s MMA history. Women’s matches are generally 3 rounds lasting three minutes each round. Men’s rounds are generally 5 rounds lasting 5 minutes each. Strikeforce applied to the Washington and California State Athletic Commissions for approval of the 5-minute, 5-round championship match-ups for women. The increased amount of time in the cage for these women will be a first for both fighters. It will be interesting to see who can survive, mentally, in the five 5-minute rounds as opposed to the three 3-minute rounds they are accustomed to.

Santos’ one loss came by way of submission, which Carano has not yet proven to have mastered. This is a tough one to call with both having excellent takedown defense and used to dominating their opponents. Carano is no doubt Santos’ toughest opponent yet. MMA fans, stay tuned…"