Alan's Quick Picks for UFC 102

Hey fight fans,

Sorry for the silence the past couple of weeks. It's been a busy time for us on this end. If you haven't checked out Jorge's picks for UFC 102 (this Saturday: UFC 102 - Couture v Nogueira), check them out here.

Here are my picks:

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Main card:
- Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
This is a match we would have loved to see a few years ago. Though a little less significant now, it's still going to be a fun main event to watch. Hard for me to imagine Couture finishing off "Big Nog" in 3 rounds. Also, Nogueira seemed to have lost a step in his previous two bouts. I give the decision victory to "The Natural"

- Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
Jardine is an enigma. Some fights he is able to come out with his unorthodox striking and befuddle opponents. Other times he looks completely outmatched and outclassed (see: v. Houston Alexander, v. Vanderlei Silva). Thiago Silva on the other hand has been the model of consistency who happened to run into the buzzsaw known as Lyoto Machida. Can't see Silva giving up much to Jardine. Yet at the same time I can imagine a scenario where Jardine may frustrate Silva to the point where he makes one little mistake and gets caught.

I may do better by flipping a coin but I'm going with my brain rather than my gut and saying Silva by TKO in the 2nd.

- Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia
I am VERY excited about this match-up! Presumably, the winner of this contest will be the next challenger to the Middleweight champion whether it be Anderson Silva or Dan Henderson (rumored for UFC 105). This is a HUGE step up in competition for Maia and I personally liked what I've seen from him and think he could take it to Marquardt.

Marquardt has done a decent job of working his way back into title contention but my bias will kick in here and I'd like to see someone new step up to try and take the middleweight championship. Nate "The Great" will always be in the upper echelon of the division but whether he is ready to be champion could be revealed in this fight.

I'm calling Maia by mild upset with a sub in the 1st.

- Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Vera cannot afford to be lazy against a game opponent in Soszynski. Soszynski also cannot expect to pull off subs the way he has in many of his UFC bouts recently. Also, when Krzysztof has fought anyone that would qualify as a "step up" in competition, he has fallen short. I suspect that someone as talented and road-tested as Vera will give him fits. I give the edge to Vera and call it by TKO in the 1st round.

- Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt
Leben is back in action almost a year after his loss to Bisping in the UK at UFC 89. He had tested positive for steroids after that bout. It's hard for the casual fan to determine what kind of shape Leben will be in or even how his training has changed in this past year.

Rosholt is a dynamic wrestler who looked pretty good in his last bout in the WEC (despite getting beaten in the standup) vs Nissen Osterneck and looked very pedestrian against Dan Miller in his UFC debut back in February.

With both men looking to comeback from a tough loss (and presumably to avoid the dreaded roster cuts that may follow this bout for the loser), I expect Leben to step up and take control of this fight with constantly pushing the pace and being the aggressor he's been been in the past. He may be taken down by Rosholt but he is no slouch on the ground and his superior striking should be the edge needed to pull out the victory over Rosholt (TKO: 3rd round)

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Prelims:
- Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer
Like Jorge said, Gonzaga by any method he wants! lol... I'm calling Gonzaga via submission in the 2nd.

- Aaron Simpson vs. Ed Herman
Herman via armbar in round 1

- Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow
Russow by guillotine round 2

- Tim Hague vs. Todd Duffee
My regular anti-ATT pick: Tim Hague by striking (b/c ATT guys can't take a punch)

- Nick Catone vs. Mark Munoz
Catone by TKO Round 2 (Munoz needs to be more selective about how aggressive he is in the cage)

- Marcus Aurelio vs. Evan Dunham
Dunham by decision - possibly FotN (Aurelio is tougher than the average ATT guy but between Xtreme Couture and ATT I'll go with Couture every time)

UFC 102 analysis and Predictions

UFC 102 - Saturday August 29, 2009
Undercard Analysis and predictions


Marcus Aurelio (18-7) v Evan Dunham (8-0) - Aurelio, 2nd rd. submission
Nick Catone (7-1) v Mark Munoz (5-1) - Catone, Decision
Tim Hague (10-1) v Todd Duffee (4-0) - Hague, 3rd. rd. g&pTKO
Justin McCully (9-4-2) v Mike Russow (11-1, 1 NC) - Russow, 3rd. rd. Submission or TKO
Ed Herman (15-7) v Aaron Simpson (5-0) - Simpson, Decision
Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4) v Chris Tuchscherer (17-1, 1 NC) - Gonzaga, anything he wants, 1st, maybe 2nd. rd.

Main Card Analysis and predictions


Brandon Vera (10-3) v Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1) - Vera, 2nd. rd. TKO or Submission
Nate Marquardt (31-8-2) v Demian Maia (11-1) - Marquart, 3rd. rd. KO or g&pTKO
Chris Leben (18-6) v Jake Rosholt (5-1) - Leben, 3rd. rd. TKO, maybe Decision
Keith Jardine (14-5-1) v Thiago Silva (13-1) - Silva, 2nd. rd. KO or TKO

MAIN EVENT Analysis and predictions



Randy Couture (16-9) v Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1) - Couture, Decision

Our Predictions for Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg

Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Main Card-
1) Mike Kyle v Fabricio Werdum
Alan G: Werdum
(can't see him losing this one to Kyle and he's hungry for his title shot)
Jorge A: Werdum
(better BJJ and has gotten a lot better in kickboxing from training with Cro-Cop)
Miko A: TBD

2) Jay Hieron v Jesse Taylor
Alan G: Taylor
(Seems like Taylor will have the strength advantage thus canceling out the wrestling aspect of the bout. I like the the upset here)
Jorge A: Heiron
(Awesome wrestling, did well in IFL and he's one of Couture's main trainers in Las Vegas)
Miko A: TBD

3) Gilbert Melendez v Hitsuhiro Ishida
Alan G: Melendez
(and hopefully to take on Thomson before the year's end)
Jorge A: Ishida
(I'm torn on this one but I'll go with Ishida)
Miko A: TBD

4) Renato 'Babalu' Sobral v Gegard Mousasi
Alan G: Mousasi
(Mousasi is a beast and Babalu "won" the belt with a doctor stoppage on a nasty elbow to Bobby Southworth last year. Another upset IMO)
Jorge A: Sobral
(Better in the ground and standing. I expect takedown and g-n-p)
Miko A: TBD

5) Gina Carano v Cristiane 'Cyborg' Santos
Alan G: Carano
(Hard to pick against Cyborg but conditioning may be the key here and I trust Carano's training at Xtreme Couture over Cyborg's at Chute Boxe)
Jorge A: Carano
(Both great stand up fighters. Santos' only loss came via submission which is not Gina's strength. I think Gina needs to keep it technical and not brawl with the more aggressive Santos. She needs to use her take down defence and maintain the center of the ring. Santos on the other hand has to pressure Gina and turn it into a brawl, and work for the takedown. Santos has to watch for the counter punching and possible leg kicks. This may be a biased and perhaps an ill fated prediction but the first women's champ should be a woman, so Gina FTW)
Miko A: TBD

Carano v Cyborg - A Female Perspective

We at NYC MMA Fans are proud to bring to you some insight from our supporter and good friend, Miko Abreu.

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"Japanese martial arts has been a part of my life in some way or another for as long as I can remember. It is a part of my heritage and recreation. With a life-long love of martial arts in general and an ever increasing appreciation for its mental and physical discipline, I am excited about the upcoming women’s mixed martial arts match on Saturday.

On August 15th, at Strikeforce, Gina “Conviction” Carano faces off against Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos for the women’s 145 lb MMA championship. This is the first-ever women’s match by a major US promoter with Carano (7-0), specializing in Muay Thai and boxing and Santos (7-1), specializing in Muay Thai and BJJ.

MMA fans have shown much anticipation for this match up as it is the probably the biggest fight in women’s MMA history. Women’s matches are generally 3 rounds lasting three minutes each round. Men’s rounds are generally 5 rounds lasting 5 minutes each. Strikeforce applied to the Washington and California State Athletic Commissions for approval of the 5-minute, 5-round championship match-ups for women. The increased amount of time in the cage for these women will be a first for both fighters. It will be interesting to see who can survive, mentally, in the five 5-minute rounds as opposed to the three 3-minute rounds they are accustomed to.

Santos’ one loss came by way of submission, which Carano has not yet proven to have mastered. This is a tough one to call with both having excellent takedown defense and used to dominating their opponents. Carano is no doubt Santos’ toughest opponent yet. MMA fans, stay tuned…"

Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg (Preview)

This Saturday marks a milestone in MMA history as Strikeforce will be the first major promotion in the US to crown a women's champion in MMA. The card will be broadcast on Showtime. It had been slated to be one of the most stacked cards in recent history (including UFC cards). Sadly, due to injuries (among other reasons), the card has lost some of it's luster.

Here is the original main card:
Gina Carano v Cristiane 'Cyborg' Santos - Women's Championship (145 lb)
Joe Riggs v Nick Diaz - Welterweight Championship (170 lb)
Josh Thomson v Gilbert Melendez - Lightweight Championship (155 lb)
Alistair Overeem v Fabricio Verdum - Heavyweight Championship (265 lb)

Four championships were on the line. Big names up and down the televised portion of the card. It looked as if August 15, 2009 would be the day Strikeforce firmly planted their flag in the American MMA fan's consciousness. Carano/Cyborg will still main event the card but lets revisit how the card changed over the past few weeks.

(1) Joe Riggs had to pull out of the bout with Diaz after having an adverse reaction to a drug he was taking. A few weeks ago, Affliction had ceased MMA operations and went back to just being a clothing company. Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker signed Jay Hieron (formerly with Affliction) to a contract after the cancellation of the Affliction: Trilogy PPV. Hieron would replace Riggs in the title bout with Diaz.

Diaz subsequently failed to take his mandatory pre-fight drug test with the California State Athletic Commission this past week and was pulled off the card. (FYI, Five Ounces of Pain did an excellent job documenting the details, click here). Now the bout with Hieron - who has been training for months without a fight and needs a paycheck - will be against TUF 'bad boy' Jesse Taylor.

Some of you may remember Jesse Taylor as the idiot who cost himself the chance at competing for a UFC contract in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 7 after getting drunk and proclaiming he was already a UFC fighter at a club in Vegas. This in addition to groping waitresses at said bar and kicking out a window in a limo provided to the TUF competitors by Dana White. Hieron v Taylor will NOT be for a championship but Taylor has been impressive outside the UFC and this should still be a compelling welterweight contest.

(2) Melendez v Thomson was a rematch of their championship bout in June 2008 when Thomson captured the lightweight belt from Melendez with a 5 round unanimous decision. Thomson has not recover fully from an ankle injury (the same one that postponed the original rematch between these two in April 2009). In the meantime, Melendez has won the interim lightweight belt and this rematch was a unification bout. instead, Thomson will be replaced on the card by Mitsuhiro Ishida. He may not be a well-known name to MMA fans in the states but he can def make a name for himself on this card.

(3) Strikeforce Heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem had a lingering hand injury that forced him to be taken off the card. Verdum will still fight on Saturday, though not for a title, against American Kickboxing Academy's (AKA) Mike Kyle.

(4) With the loss of two championship bouts Strikeforce looked to the Affliction card for replacements. They rescheduled the bout between Renato 'Babalu' Sobral and Gegard Mousasi (originally on Affliction: Trilogy) for this Saturday. Since Babalu is the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champion, Strikeforce will make the Sobral/Mousasi bout a title fight.

Here is the updated main card (as of 8/14/09):
Gina Carano v Cristiane 'Cyborg' Santos - Women's Championship (145 lb)
Renato Sobral v Gegard Mousasi - Light Heavyweight Championship (205 lb)
Gilbert Melendez v Mitsuhiro Ishida - Interim Lightweight Championship (155 lb)
Mike Kyle v Fabricio Verdum - Heavyweight bout (265 lb)
Jay Hieron v Jesse Taylor - Welterweight bout (170 lb)

Despite the turmoil and last minutes changes, Strikeforce has put together a night packed with quality MMA action. With the recent signing of the Last Emperor, Fedor Emilianenko, you can expect Strikeforce to talk up that signing and perhaps announce his first opponent as well.

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Strikeforce: Carano v Cyborg will take place on Saturday night August 15, 2009 live from San Jose, CA. It will be broadcast on Showtime and coverage begins at 10:30PM EST.

Recap of UFC 101 and a Brief Look at WEC 42

Hello fight fans,
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My reactions to UFC 101:
A decent card put together by the UFC last night. Philly proved to be a fairly intelligent MMA fan base with knowledgeable fans that appreciate the ground game. Never mind the fight that broke out in the crowd during the Riley-Nelson bout (see the link at the end of this post)

1) As far as my predictions, it was a pretty rotten night for me (4-7).
[The splits: 0-5 for the undercard, 4-2 on the main card (Nelson vs. Riley moved to main card), 4-3 on televised bouts, 0-2 on co-main events.]

For the two feature bouts, I worked so hard to make a case for: (1) underdogs Forrest Griffin and Kenny Florian and (2) why the favorites COULD lose, that I overlooked the obvious. Anderson Silva and BJ Penn are freaks of nature! WOW!

2) Sadollah-Hendricks: Hard to claim early stoppage by Dan Miragliotta (Some of you may recall Miragliotta was the same ref that stopped the fight between Kimbo and James Thompson). Sadollah had a choice: block or try to get back up. He had difficulty getting up and in the meantime he was getting hit repeatedly. If it wasn't for the flurry of uppercuts that knocked him down in the first place Dan may not have stopped it but you're talking about close to a dozen clean punches that landed in mere seconds.

One of the ref's responsibilities is to protect the fighters. This is what separates MMA from boxing. You want guys beaten to a pulp with their brains knocked into next week, watch boxing and see those fighter 20 years from now and tell me they're better off than the MMA fighters.

3) Also, I'm not looking to make excuses for Forrest Griffin but am I the only one who thinks he looked out of sorts? He was very tentative (yes, I know it's Anderson Silva across from him in the Octagon but this seemed different). Griffin ran off after the bout and still managed to win Fight of the Night. I wonder if this was a reward for fighting hurt/sick/etc. Food for thought but it'll add fuel to the naysayers' fire when they claim that MMA is rigged (like pro wrestling).

4) I said it earlier I'll say it again. BJ Penn? WOW! What a slick sub on KenFlo! And Ken was barely winning the fight scraping by much the way I expected. But it looked as if KenFlo tired and to Penn's credit BJ exploded for his takedown and stayed on top of Kenny until he took his back and sunk in the RNC. Ultimately, no matter what you may think of BJ's conditioning issues in the past, you cannot give that man an opening and Kenny did just that.

I had the first round fairly even but Penn's striking edged out KenFlo's Octagon control (an often overlooked judging criteria by many MMA fans, new and old). The second round went to Kenny and the third was another close one which I hesitantly gave to Florian. If we were to stay with the scorecards, BJ Penn dominated round #4 but the RNC was the exclamation point.


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WEC 42:
We're hours away from tonight's WEC 42 on Versus (check your local listings for the live broadcast and the replays during the week).



(Note: difficulties in compressing the rest of the video resulted in a late post. To follow is the transcript from the rest of the video)

Alan: "...who is a tough opponent but has come upon some hard luck lately. Curran lost to Urijah Faber. His bounce back fight was a loss against future featherweight champion Mike Brown. Last fight was against Benavides, a decision loss. Curran needs this win to bounce back. No word on what will happen with his career should he lose this fight but a 4-fight losing streak is not what he needs at this point in his career.

The main event is between Miguel Angel Torres, the bantamweight champion versus Brian Bowles. Torres is on a 17 fight win streak. He's fought five times in the WEC with a record of 4-0 in championship bouts. This will be his 4th title defense. He has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Carlson Gracie, Jr which is not something that should be dismissed as this is a big deal in the MMA world. He's a fairly precise striker once he establishes his range. If you look at him he looks like a skinny lanky dude but in actuality he's a dangerous striker in addition to being excellent on the ground. Anyone who challenges Torres will have to be at his best.

Which bring us to Brian Bowles. He's 7-0 and he is a wrestler and boxer. He hasn't had a fight go to a decision yet. He's managed to win 5 fights by submission and 2 by TKO. His submission wins have come via rear naked choke and guillotine. It's a fairly safe bet that he won't be able to pull off either of those moves on Torres. As some of you have read in my comments above Stephan Bonnar's suggestion for Bowles to win the fight is something that may work short term but not something he can sustain for 5 full rounds. It is essential that he uses his wrestling skills to his advantage to fare well on the judge's scorecard. One of the overlooked aspects of judging. It's not just striking or grappling but it's also about ring/cage control and dictating where the fight goes. he's able to do this with his wrestling then Bowles has a good chance of winning a decision against Torres. Although 'lay and pray' is not necessarily the way to go but his wrestling is the key to victory for him.

Nevertheless, I'm giving this fight to Torres who I suspect will make Bowles look like a lesser fighter. Bowles is definitely a top contender and maybe one of the toughest Torres will face in a while. But it's someone Torres should be able to beat and I think it'll end in a TKO in the 3rd round.

We have a few other exciting things in line for this week with the Strikeforce event coming up. Keep your eyes on the blog. We're expecting some commentary from a special guest blogger who will provide a fresh perspective on the Strikeforce card. Until then... Peace."

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Related Links:
i) For SI's Josh Gross' article on Brian Bowles, click here.

ii) Video of the fight in the crowd at UFC 101 last night, click here.

iii) Five Ounces of Pain article: "Anderson Silva makes great fighters look bad"

UFC 101 Predictions

Alan's UFC 101 Picks:

Intro-


Undercard Picks-
Part 2


Part 3


Main Card Picks-
Part 4


Part 5 (Silva v Griffin)


Part 6 (Penn v Florian)


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Upcoming MMA events
8/9/09 = WEC 43:
Miguel Angel Torres(c) v Brian Bowles; Jeff Curran v Takeya Mizugaki

8/15/09 = A STACKED Strikeforce card featuring:
Gina Carano v Cyborg Santos (the female one); Nick Diaz v Jay Hieron (for the Strikeforce Welterweight belt); Renato "Babalu" Sobral v Gegard Mousasi (Light Heavyweight championship bout); Gilbert Melendez v Mitsuhiro Ishida (for Interim Lightweight Championship); Mike Kyle v Fabricio Verdum

Stay tuned for our take on the upcoming events soon.

- Alan

Inuagural Post

Hello blogosphere,

With UFC 101 right around the corner (and in our neck of the woods: Philadelphia, PA), it's about time that myself and J bring you our perspective on everything MMA-related. We will provide commentary on the MMA landscape along with predictions of most major MMA cards and post-fight analysis of the events.

Hope you enjoy the blog and we can't wait to hear your feedback.

- Alan